4.7 AI Daily Report Global trade war triggers turbulence in the Crypto Assets market, Bitcoin falls below $78,000

1. Headlines

1. The global trade war has caused turmoil in the cryptocurrency market.

The Trump administration announced a new round of tariffs on global trading partners, triggering severe market fluctuations. Bitcoin plummeted 14% in the short term, briefly falling below the $78,000 mark. Ethereum also followed suit, with a decline of more than 12%, and the cryptocurrency market cap evaporated by over $100 billion within 24 hours.

Analysts point out that the uncertainty of the trade war has intensified investors' risk aversion, leading safe-haven funds to flow into traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies, as an emerging asset class, have faced fund sell-offs. However, the long-term outlook for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin remains bullish, as long as trade disputes can be alleviated, the crypto market is expected to regain its upward momentum.

In addition, trade wars may also prompt more funds to seek the safe-haven function of non-sovereign currencies like cryptocurrencies. Once the global economy falls into recession, central banks may have to restart quantitative easing, which would raise inflation expectations and further boost demand for cryptocurrencies.

2. Major US tech stocks plummet collectively, Tesla falls 10% in pre-market.

Under the shadow of the trade war, US tech stocks collectively plummeted in pre-market trading on Friday. Major tech giants like Apple, Tesla, and Meta saw significant declines in their stock prices. Among them, Tesla briefly dropped over 10%, while Intel and Meta fell by 4.8% and 6.1%, respectively.

Analysts say that the uncertainty of the trade war has heightened concerns about the economic outlook for the United States and the global economy. Technology stocks, as risk assets, are the first to be sold off. Electric vehicle companies like Tesla are directly impacted by tariffs, facing pressures of rising costs and declining profits.

At the same time, inflation in the United States continues to rise, and the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, further suppressing the performance of risk assets. Investors generally expect that technology stocks will maintain a high volatility pattern for a period of time. However, once the trade disputes are alleviated, technology stocks are expected to regain upward momentum.

3. Ethereum faces large holder sell-off, 67,570 ETH were forcibly liquidated.

During the crash of Ethereum prices, a large number of investors' positions were forcibly liquidated. Data shows that a total of 67,570 Ethereum were liquidated within 24 hours, equivalent to about $105 million.

Analysts point out that this round of selling is mainly due to market turmoil caused by the trade war. As the second-largest asset in cryptocurrency, Ethereum is naturally hard hit. However, the development of the Ethereum ecosystem remains strong, with a constant emergence of upper-layer applications, and the long-term outlook is promising.

At the same time, large holders being forced to liquidate also released some selling pressure, which may continue the downward trend of Ethereum in the short term. However, once market panic subsides, Ethereum is expected to regain upward momentum. At that time, investors can seize the opportunity to buy on dips.

4. Dogecoin plunged 20%, but the "bull line" gives hope to HODL players

In this round of cryptocurrency sell-off, Dogecoin has also been affected, plummeting 20% within 24 hours and falling below the $0.08 mark. However, analysts point out that Dogecoin's long-term "bull market line" is still supporting it, bringing hope to HODLers.

The so-called "bull market line" refers to the downward trend line after the price of Dogecoin peaked in May 2021. As long as Dogecoin does not fall below this trend line, there is still a chance for a rebound in the future. Although the price of Dogecoin has significantly dropped at present, it is still above the "bull market line."

Analysts believe that Dogecoin, as a cultural symbol and community emblem, derives its value primarily from community recognition. As long as the community remains active, Dogecoin is expected to recover its momentum in the next bull market. However, in the short term, Dogecoin may continue to face pressure, and investors need to be patient.

5. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission expands the scope of virtual asset ETFs to promote diversified development.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has announced that it will expand the scope of eligible virtual assets, paving the way for the diversification of virtual asset ETF product lines. Previously, Hong Kong's virtual asset ETFs mainly focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Analysts believe that this move will further enhance Hong Kong's status as an international virtual asset hub. With more virtual assets being included in the qualified list, investors will gain more diversified investment options, which is beneficial for risk diversification.

At the same time, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission will also allow virtual asset pledging, providing investors with more channels to obtain returns. However, to control risks, the Commission will set a limit on the proportion of assets that can be pledged.

Overall, a series of new policies from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission will further improve the regulatory framework for virtual assets, laying the foundation for Hong Kong to develop into a leading virtual asset center.

II. Industry data

1. BTC

The recent transaction price of Bitcoin is 83042.4000 USD, with a daily decline of -0.60%.

2. ETH

The recent transaction price of Ethereum is $1797.9200, with a daily decline of -0.80%.

3. XRP

The recent trading price of XRP is $2.0936, with a daily decline of -2.00%.

4. PI

The recent trading price of PI is $0.6572, with a daily increase of +8.40%.

5. GT

The recent transaction price of GT is 22.4490 USD, with a daily decline of -0.20%.

3. Industry News

1. The cryptocurrency market suffered a heavy blow on "Black Monday", with major currencies like Bitcoin experiencing significant declines.

Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% in the past 24 hours, dropping below the $78,000 mark. Major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP have also seen significant declines, with losses exceeding 14%. This plummet is primarily due to the announcement by the Trump administration of new tariffs on trade partners. The market is worried that the outbreak of a trade war will lead to a global economic recession, exacerbating investors' panic.

Analysts point out that the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market reflects its high-risk nature. Under the influence of macroeconomic uncertainties, investors tend to withdraw from risk assets and seek safe havens instead. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency positions amounting to as much as $800 million were forcibly liquidated, further intensifying the downward pressure on the market.

Nevertheless, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. They believe that Bitcoin, as a new type of asset, is expected to regain upward momentum after experiencing short-term volatility. However, there are also viewpoints suggesting that if trade tensions continue to escalate, the cryptocurrency market may face greater downside risks.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a severe test. Investors need to remain cautious, closely monitor changes in the macro situation, and manage risks effectively. Only by fully understanding the risks can one seize opportunities in the market.

2. Ethereum faced a severe setback, with the price falling back to the $1600 level.

Ethereum has experienced a decline of over 14% in the past 24 hours, with prices briefly dropping below the $1600 mark, reaching a new low since 2018. This drop is primarily influenced by the escalation of global trade tensions, which has heightened investors' concerns about the economic outlook and exacerbated the sell-off of risk assets.

Analysts point out that Ethereum, as the second largest cryptocurrency in the market, often has its price movements highly correlated with Bitcoin. With Bitcoin's significant decline, Ethereum also finds it hard to remain unaffected. Meanwhile, the trading activity on the Ethereum network and the development of the DeFi ecosystem have slowed down, which has also affected its price performance to some extent.

However, some analysts hold an optimistic view on the long-term prospects of Ethereum. They believe that Ethereum, as the leader of smart contract platforms, plays an important role in the development of blockchain technology. With the implementation of more applications, the value of Ethereum is expected to be further unlocked.

Overall, the short-term trend of Ethereum may depend on changes in the macro environment. If trade tensions ease, investor sentiment is expected to improve, which could provide a rebound opportunity for Ethereum. However, if the situation continues to deteriorate, Ethereum may also face challenges. Investors need to remain patient and closely monitor market dynamics.

3. Solana price has dropped significantly, focusing on the important support level of 100 dollars.

As an emerging public chain project, Solana has also not been spared in the past 24 hours, with its price plummeting more than 14%, briefly falling below the $100 mark. This decline is mainly influenced by the overall sluggishness of the cryptocurrency market, with investors' sentiment towards risk assets turning sour.

Analysts point out that Solana, as a highly centralized public chain project, often sees its price trends closely related to investors' expectations for the entire cryptocurrency market. In the context of a sluggish market sentiment, Solana finds it difficult to stand out on its own.

However, there are also analysts who are optimistic about Solana's long-term prospects. They believe that Solana has certain technical advantages, such as high throughput and low fees, and is expected to stand out from the competition in the future. As long as Solana can continue to promote the construction of the ecosystem and attract more developers and applications, its value is expected to be unleashed.

Overall, Solana's short-term trend may depend on the overall performance of the cryptocurrency market. If market sentiment improves, Solana is expected to have a rebound opportunity. However, if the market continues to be sluggish, Solana will also struggle to escape downward pressure. Investors need to closely monitor the performance of the important support level at $100.

4. Altcoins are collectively falling, investor sentiment is panicked.

On the "Black Monday" of the cryptocurrency market, in addition to mainstream coins, altcoins also experienced significant declines. Notably, well-known altcoins like Cardano and Dogecoin saw drops of over 15%. This phenomenon reflects the extreme panic of investors.

Analysts point out that altcoins, as high-risk assets, often take the brunt during market turmoil. When investors' concerns about the economic outlook intensify, they tend to sell off higher-risk assets in favor of seeking safe havens.

At the same time, the trading activity and speculative demand for altcoins are also declining. Data shows that the total trading volume of altcoins has decreased by more than 20% in the past 24 hours, reflecting a cooling enthusiasm among investors in this sector.

However, some analysts believe that the decline of altcoins may provide a good buying opportunity for long-term investors. They think that as long as the macro environment eventually improves, altcoins are likely to regain their upward momentum. However, it is also important to be aware of risks and invest cautiously.

Overall, the trend of altcoins may depend on changes in investor sentiment. If panic persists, altcoins may face further downward pressure. However, if market sentiment improves, altcoins are also expected to have a chance for a rebound.

4. Project News

1. Mind Network launches AgenticWorld, leading We into the Agentic era.

Mind Network is a We project focused on Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), aiming to build a trusted secure ecosystem for Agentic AI. Recently, Mind Network launched AgenticWorld, a product for Agentic AI on the BNB Chain, with nearly 40,000 people already registered and received Agents.

AgenticWorld is a trusted ecosystem provided by Mind Network for Agents, ensuring the privacy and security of Agents through FHE technology. Users can interact and collaborate with Agents in AgenticWorld, and Agents will perform various tasks based on user needs. Mind Network is committed to advancing We into the Agentic era, enabling AI agents to provide services safely and reliably for users.

Mind Network's innovation lies in the combination of FHE and We to provide a secure and trusted runtime environment for AI agents. FHE technology can perform calculations on encrypted data without decryption, ensuring the privacy and data security of the agent. This lays the foundation for the application of AI agents in finance, healthcare, and other fields.

Industry insiders are optimistic about the prospects of Mind Network. Analysts believe that Mind Network provides innovative solutions for secure applications of AI agents, which is expected to promote the development of the We ecosystem. However, some are concerned about the performance and scalability issues of FHE technology, hoping that Mind Network can continue to optimize in the future.

2. Sui ecosystem welcomes Seal decentralized secret management service

Sui is a new public chain built by Mysten Labs, utilizing the Move programming language, focused on providing high-performance and scalable blockchain infrastructure. Recently, a decentralized secret management service called Seal has launched on the Sui Testnet, bringing enhanced security to the Sui ecosystem.

Seal implements on-chain access control and threshold encryption through Move smart contracts, supporting various application scenarios such as content encryption, game logic, and We messages. It ensures that We applications better protect user data and avoid reliance on centralized key management. Features of Seal include eliminating single points of failure and providing flexible access control policies.

The addition of Seal is expected to further enhance the security and credibility of the Sui ecosystem. The Sui ecosystem has always focused on privacy protection and data security, and the arrival of Seal will provide reliable secret management solutions for more We applications. This is crucial for attracting more developers and users to join the Sui ecosystem.

Analysts believe that Seal represents an important advancement in We's security infrastructure. By managing keys and access permissions in a decentralized manner, it can effectively reduce single point risks and enhance the overall ecosystem's risk resistance capability. However, the performance and usability of Seal still need to be tested in practice, and more application scenarios will be needed in the future.

EPHYRA has secured $500 million in financing to accelerate the development of multimodal AI agent technology.

EPHYRA is an innovative project focused on AI-driven gaming companions, which recently announced that it has secured $500 million in strategic financing. The investors are the renowned gaming community joint fund from Japan and South Korea, Play & Connect Capital(PCC).

The core technology of EPHYRA is a distributed decision-making framework and an adaptive learning system, which can break the scenario limitations of traditional AI agents. This technology not only supports gaming scenarios but can also be transferred to fields such as financial analysis, intelligent customer service, and industrial automation, offering broad application prospects.

This financing will be used to deepen the research and development of AI interaction engines, expand the Asia-Pacific market, and strengthen the game IP cooperation ecosystem. PCC believes that EPHYRA's technology is expected to drive digital transformation for enterprises and play an important role in emerging fields such as the metaverse.

The innovation of EPHYRA lies in the combination of multimodal AI and distributed architecture, breaking through the limitations of traditional AI agents. Multimodal AI can simultaneously process various types of data such as visual, voice, and text, enabling AI agents to possess stronger interaction and decision-making capabilities.

Industry analysts are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of EPHYRA. On one hand, multimodal AI agents are expected to bring a brand new user experience; on the other hand, issues such as high training costs and opaque decision-making processes still need to be addressed. EPHYRA needs to focus on the practicality and interpretability of its products while pursuing technological innovation.

4. RootData releases the first We popular project ranking

Our data company RootData has recently launched the first "We Popular Projects Ranking". This ranking is based on 4.3 million real user behavior data, calculated through a weighted combination of multiple factors such as search frequency, project click volume, user votes, and social media popularity, reflecting the real-time popularity of projects.

The ranking list aims to help users capture real market dynamics and improve the accuracy of investment decisions. RootData indicates that traditional cryptocurrency rankings often have lagging nature and cannot reflect market changes in a timely manner. In contrast, rankings based on user behavior data can better capture potential hot projects.

After the first phase of the ranking was launched, the FHE project Mind Network took the top spot. Recently, Mind Network launched the AgenticWorld product on the BNB Chain, sparking heated discussions in the market. Other top-ranking projects include Seal from the Sui ecosystem, EPHYRA, and others.

Analysts believe that RootData's ranking provides investors with a new channel for project discovery. Compared to single-chain data or social media metrics, integrating multi-dimensional data can more accurately reflect the true popularity of a project. However, some analysts also remind that user behavior data may have certain lag and manipulation risks, and investors still need to combine other information sources for judgment.

Overall, the RootData leaderboard has brought an innovative data tool to the We ecosystem, helping to discover potential projects and track market dynamics. In the future, as more users join and data accumulates, this leaderboard is expected to become an important reference indicator in the industry.

5. Economic Dynamics

1. U.S. tariffs have sparked global trade tensions

Economic Background: The pace of global economic recovery has slowed, and inflation rates in major economies remain high. The annualized GDP growth in the United States for the first quarter was 1.1%, lower than expected. The inflation rate remains high at around 6%, and the job market remains robust. The Eurozone's economic growth is weak, with an annualized GDP growth of only 0.1% in the first quarter. China's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, facing weakness in the manufacturing sector.

Important Event: On April 2, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order announcing a "minimum baseline tariff" of 10% on all trading partners and higher tariffs on certain countries. This move aims to punish countries that impose high tariff barriers on U.S. goods. This policy is seen as a significant turning point in the global trade landscape.

Market reaction: Trump's tariff policy has triggered severe turmoil in the global financial markets. US stocks have plunged sharply, with the Dow Jones once again resembling the "Black Monday" of 1987. Asian and European stock markets have also fallen sharply in response, causing panic among investors. Commodity and energy prices have plummeted. Major global economies have expressed their readiness to take countermeasures. The market is concerned that the escalation of the trade war will severely impact the global economy.

Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs analysts have stated that tariff policies will exacerbate inflationary pressures, and the Federal Reserve may be forced to accelerate interest rate hikes. Morgan Stanley warns that the trade war could trigger a global economic recession. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke believes that Trump's actions will undermine the United States' leadership position in the global economy.

2. Expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike are rising, leading to a divergence in global monetary policies.

Economic Background: The US job market continues to improve, with GDP growth slowing in the first quarter but still within a reasonable range. Inflation remains high, with the core PCE rising 5.2% year-on-year in March, marking a 40-year high. The Eurozone's economic recovery is weak, with an annualized GDP growth of 0.1% in the first quarter and inflation climbing to 7.5%. China's economy is under downward pressure, with a year-on-year GDP growth of 4.5% in the first quarter.

Key Events: The minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting sent hawkish signals, with most officials believing that large interest rate hikes need to continue to be aggressive to curb inflation. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 436,000 in March, far exceeding expectations. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that interest rate hikes will continue until inflation falls significantly.

Market reaction: Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike have increased, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to steepen. The U.S. dollar index has risen nearly 5% since mid-March. After experiencing significant volatility, U.S. stocks have stabilized. European stock markets are under pressure, with the euro depreciating nearly 3% against the U.S. dollar. The Chinese yuan has depreciated more than 2% against the U.S. dollar this month. Emerging market currencies are under pressure.

Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May, with a total of 7 rate hikes for the year. Citibank believes the Federal Reserve will end its rate hike cycle in September and may begin to cut rates next year. UBS analysts indicate that the divergence in global monetary policy will exacerbate turmoil in financial markets.

3. China's economic data is mixed, and policies face challenges.

Economic Background: China's GDP in the first quarter grew by 4.5% year-on-year, meeting expectations but significantly slowing compared to the same period last year. In March, industrial added value increased by 3.9% year-on-year, which was below expectations. In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly above expectations. In March, exports increased by 14.8% year-on-year, and imports grew by 7.1%.

Important events: The People's Bank of China maintains the policy interest rate unchanged but lowers the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 percentage points, releasing approximately 520 billion yuan in long-term funds. The State Council's executive meeting has deployed a package of policies to stabilize the economy, including expanding credit input into the real economy and increasing support for infrastructure.

Market reaction: The A-share market rebounded slightly, and the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has narrowed. Bond market interest rates are declining. Economic data is mixed, raising doubts about the effectiveness of policies. Foreign capital maintains a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the Chinese market.

Expert Opinion: China International Capital Corporation believes that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and policies are facing a dilemma of "being at a loss for both advancement and retreat." Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP growth rate for the entire year to be 4.3%, below the official target. Citibank predicts that China will further relax monetary policy. UBS analysts state that China's economic recovery still requires time.

4. The energy crisis in Europe is worsening, and the economic outlook is bleak.

Economic Background: The Eurozone's GDP annualized growth in the first quarter was 0.1%, indicating weak economic recovery. The inflation rate climbed to 7.5% in March, setting a new historical high. The unemployment rate has continued to decline to 6.8%. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.5, while the services PMI stood at 55.6, showing a divergence in economic activity.

Important events: Russia has interrupted natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, exacerbating the European energy crisis. The EU has announced the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, banning the import of Russian crude oil. The conflict in Ukraine continues, increasing geopolitical risks.

Market reaction: European stock markets plummeted, and the euro fell below the 1.05 mark against the US dollar. The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds surpassed 1%. European natural gas and electricity prices soared. The European Central Bank faces a dilemma of curbing inflation while supporting the economy.

Expert Opinion: Deutsche Bank expects the Eurozone economy to fall into a mild recession. Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone to 2.5% for this year. Citibank expects the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July. UBS analysts believe that the European energy crisis will last for at least another year.

6. Regulation & Policy

1. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued pledge guidelines to expand the scope of virtual asset services.

Policy Background: As a financial regulator, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has been promoting the standardized development of the virtual asset industry. With the continuous innovation of blockchain technology and the expansion of application scenarios, the SFC believes that it is necessary to expand the scope of regulated virtual asset services to meet market demand and maintain the healthy development of the ecosystem.

Policy Content: The SFC issued a circular on 7 April 2025 to allow licensed virtual asset trading platforms and authorized virtual asset funds to provide pledge services. Staking services allow investors to lock up their virtual assets to support the operation of the blockchain network and receive corresponding returns. To manage risks, the SFC will implement additional safeguards, including requiring licensed platforms to take custody of pledged virtual assets and setting a cap on the proportion of virtual asset spot ETFs that can be pledged to manage liquidity risk.

Market reaction: Industry insiders generally welcomed this policy. Expanding the scope of regulated services will help attract more institutional investors to participate in the virtual asset market and promote the development of the industry. At the same time, the launch of staking services will also bring new income channels to investors. However, some people are worried that there are certain risks in staking services, and call on investors to operate cautiously.

Expert Opinion: Chen Shouxin, the chairman of the Hong Kong FinTech Association, stated that "staking services are significantly important for enhancing the security and decentralization of blockchain networks. The new policy from the Securities and Futures Commission will provide investors with the opportunity to participate in staking within a regulated environment, which is beneficial for promoting the healthy development of the virtual asset ecosystem."

2. The Securities Regulatory Commission expands the scope of qualified virtual assets, paving the way for the diversification of ETF products.

Policy Background: As more virtual assets meet the conditions for retail trading on licensed platforms, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has decided to expand the range of eligible virtual asset underlyings. This move aims to provide a more diversified selection for virtual asset ETF products, catering to the varying needs of investors.

Policy Content: Initially, the virtual asset spot ETF primarily focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum. According to the new policy from the Securities Regulatory Commission, more virtual assets will be included in the eligible range, paving the way for the launch of a single ETF product that tracks a basket of virtual assets. However, the specific list of eligible virtual assets has not yet been announced.

Market Reaction: Market participants believe that expanding the range of eligible virtual assets will provide investors with more investment options, which will help attract more funds into the virtual asset market. At the same time, diversified ETF products will also help to spread investment risk. However, some are concerned that the newly added virtual assets may carry higher volatility and regulatory risks.

Expert Opinion: Wong Wing-kwong, Chief Operating Officer of the Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation, stated: "The virtual asset market is rapidly developing, and investors' demand for diversified products is growing. The new policies of the Securities and Futures Commission are keeping pace with the times and will promote Hong Kong as a virtual asset hub in Asia, providing more investment opportunities for local and overseas investors."