The forward-looking vision of a new era, how a16z founder predicted the development of Bitcoin 11 years ago?

Bitcoin is by no means a libertarian fairy tale or Silicon Valley hype, but an excellent opportunity to rethink the way the financial system operates in the internet age, serving as a catalyst for reshaping a financial system that is more beneficial to individuals and businesses.

Compiled by: Blockchain Knight

This article titled "Why BTC Matters?" was written by a16z founding partner Marc Andreessen in 2014, profoundly revealing the essence of BTC as a breakthrough in computer science. Its foresight remains outstanding even 11 years later.

The article foresaw that BTC would give rise to a four-sided network effect (consumers, merchants, miners, developers), which has now evolved into a trillion-dollar ecosystem: over 200 million users worldwide hold BTC, 89 countries support BTC payments, more than 90 publicly listed companies have allocated BTC, several states in the U.S. have allocated BTC ETF in their pension funds, and institutional investors hold over 4% of the circulating supply through ETFs, while the developer community continues to expand solutions like the Lightning Network and other Layer 2 solutions.

Although the article faced considerable criticism at the time of its publication, looking back from the standpoint of 2025, this article, which was born in an era when BTC's market value was less than 10 billion dollars, accurately outlines the value logic and technological development path of BTC, and its depth of thought shines even brighter today.

The following is the full content. Please enjoy it; it's worth collecting and reviewing repeatedly, especially at a time when the BTC and even the entire Crypto market are not very optimistic. It might be a good idea to read it as a "motivational" article, and perhaps you will gain a lot.

A mysterious new technology has suddenly emerged, seemingly appearing out of nowhere, but in fact, it is the result of the efforts of numerous anonymous researchers over the past twenty years.

Political idealists see a vision of liberation and revolution in it, while the ruling elite scoff at it. Meanwhile, the tech geeks are obsessed with it, recognizing its immense potential and studying it day and night.

In the end, mainstream products, companies, and industries emerged to commercialize it, and its impact became far-reaching. Later, many couldn't help but wonder: why couldn't we foresee its strong prospects back then?

What technology am I talking about? The personal computer of 1975, the internet of 1993, and – I believe – the BTC of 2014.

Although BTC is no longer a fresh topic, there still exists a significant gap between the media and public's understanding of BTC and that of the increasingly growing group of technical experts. This article will explain why BTC excites Silicon Valley programmers and entrepreneurs, as well as where I believe the future potential of BTC lies.

First, BTC has achieved a breakthrough in the field of computer science, a breakthrough built on the foundation of 20 years of cryptographic research by thousands of researchers worldwide and 40 years of cryptography research.

BTC has effectively addressed a long-standing issue in computer science known as the "Byzantine Generals Problem." Quoting the original paper that defines this problem: "Imagine a Byzantine army of generals surrounding an enemy city. They can only communicate through messengers and must agree on a common battle plan, but there may be traitors trying to confuse the situation. The problem is how to find an algorithm that ensures loyal generals reach consensus."

More broadly, the Byzantine Generals Problem raises the question of how to establish trust between unrelated parties over untrustworthy networks such as the internet.

The practical significance of solving this problem lies in the fact that BTC has achieved reliable transfer of digital assets between Internet users for the first time. This transfer has security guarantees, allowing all participants to verify that the transaction has occurred, and no one can question its legitimacy. The importance of this breakthrough cannot be overstated.

Which digital assets can be transferred in this way? Digital signatures, digital contracts, digital keys ( physical locks or online safes ), digital ownership of physical assets such as cars and real estate, digital stocks and bonds, etc., as well as digital currencies.

All of this is exchanged through a distributed trust network without relying on centralized intermediaries such as banks or brokers. Assets can only be sent by the owner and can only be received by the designated recipient, existing in only one place at a time. Anyone can verify all asset transactions and ownership at any time.

How does BTC work?

BTC is a distributed ledger that covers the entire internet. By purchasing or selling goods and services for cash in exchange for BTC, you can obtain a fixed position in the ledger. You can exit by reselling BTC to others who want to enter the ledger.

Anyone in the world can freely access the ledger at any time: no approval is needed, and the cost is very low or even free. The 'coin' of BTC essentially represents a position in the ledger, similar to a seat on a stock exchange, but it can be applied more broadly in real-world transactions.

The BTC ledger is a new type of payment system. Anyone can pay any amount to any entity globally simply by transferring ownership of the corresponding position in the ledger. Depositing value, transferring value, receiving value—no authorization is required, and in most cases, no transaction fees.

This point is crucial. BTC is the first global payment system to achieve zero fees or ultra-low fees ( as low as sub-coin level ). Existing payment systems charge a fee of 2-3%, and this is in developed countries; many regions either lack modern payment systems or have even higher rates, which will be discussed later.

BTC is a digital carrier tool. It allows parties that do not trust each other to exchange currency or assets: in the simplest case, a string of numbers is sent via email or text message. The sender does not need to know or trust the receiver, and vice versa.

BTC does not support refunds, which is completely consistent with cash: you can only pay if you have money, and if you don't, you can't. This is an unprecedented innovation in the digital realm.

As a digital currency, the value of BTC is directly based on two points: the current usage of the payment system (, the amount of payments in the ledger and the circulation speed ), as well as the expectations for future usage of the payment system.

This has led to some misunderstandings: it is not that BTC itself has arbitrary value that it is traded, but rather that people can use BTC for fraud-free, low-fee global transactions, which in turn gives it value.

The current value of BTC may be more based on expectations rather than actual payment volume, but it is equally true that these expectations have established a sufficiently high price for BTC, making actual payments possible.

BTC must first possess value to support real payment volume, which is a classic "chicken and egg" problem faced by new technologies: new technologies have limited value before obtaining high value. Therefore, part of the speculative rise in BTC's value has instead accelerated the realization of its actual utility.

Critics of BTC point out that its use among ordinary consumers and merchants is limited, but personal computers and the internet faced similar doubts at the same stage of development. Every day, more consumers and merchants around the world are starting to buy and sell using BTC.

The total volume is small but growing rapidly, and with the improvement of BTC tools, the ease of use for all participants is rapidly improving. Remember: even surfing the web used to be a technical challenge, but now it's not.

The statement that merchants refuse BTC due to price fluctuations is also incorrect. BTC can be used entirely as a payment system, and merchants do not need to hold BTC or bear price fluctuations; any consumer or merchant can exchange BTC for other currencies at any time.

Since the number of consumers currently using BTC for payments is limited, why should online and offline merchants still accept BTC? My partner Chris Dixon recently gave an example:

Assuming online sales of electronic products, the profit margin for this type of business is usually less than 5%, meaning the traditional 2.5% payment processing fee would eat up half of the profits. This money could have been used for business reinvestment, consumer refunds, or tax payments. Among all these options, giving 2.5% to the bank for online transfers is the worst choice.

Another payment challenge is international payments, and if you're wondering why your favorite product or service isn't available in your home country, the answer is often payment-related.

In addition, merchants prefer BTC because it can eliminate the risk of credit card fraud, which prompts criminals to strive to steal customers' personal information and credit card numbers.

Since BTC is a digital bearer instrument, the payee will not receive any sender information that could be used to steal funds in the future, whether from the merchant itself or from criminals who have stolen merchant information.

Credit card fraud has a significant impact on merchants, payment processors, and banks, leading online fraud detection systems to be highly sensitive, intercepting any suspicious transactions regardless of whether actual fraud exists.

As a result, many online merchants are forced to reject 5-10% of orders that could have been safely accepted if paid with BTC. Since these are incoming orders, they are essentially the highest margin orders, and accepting them would significantly boost merchant profits.

The anti-fraud features of BTC even extend to the physical retail sector.

For example, the recent incident of 70 million consumer credit card information being stolen from Target would not have occurred if BTC had been used. The mechanism works as follows:

When checking out as usual, you no longer hand over your credit card, but instead scan the QR code displayed at the checkout with your smartphone. This QR code contains all the information needed to send BTC to Target, including the amount (. Click to confirm on your phone to complete the transaction ). If your account does not have BTC, the system will automatically convert dollars to BTC(.

Target satisfaction: Instant access to BTC) can be exchanged for US dollars ( at any time, with zero or extremely low fees; consumer satisfaction: hackers cannot steal personal information: criminal groups are frustrated. ) Of course, criminals may still target merchants with weak defenses, but even if successful, consumers will not face the risk of financial loss, fraud, or identity theft. (

Finally, I would like to respond to the misconception that some critics claim that BTC is a safe haven for criminals to transfer funds anonymously, stemming from media hype and technical misawareness. Similar to traceable emails, BTC is pseudo-anonymous rather than completely anonymous.

More importantly, all transactions on the BTC network are permanently recorded in the blockchain ), a public permanent ledger (. Therefore, compared to cash, gold, or diamonds, law enforcement's tracking of BTC is much easier.

What is the future of BTC?

BTC is a typical network effect: a positive feedback loop. The more users there are, the greater the value of BTC to each user, and the stronger the incentive to attract the next user. This network effect is similar to that of telephone systems, the internet, and popular online services such as eBay and Facebook.

In fact, BTC has a four-sided network effect. Four participant groups collectively enhance the value of BTC through self-interested behavior:

)1( consumers using BTC for payment;

) merchants that accept BTC;

(3) miners who run computers to process and validate transactions, maintaining a distributed trust network;

(4) Developers and entrepreneurs based on Bitcoin developing new product services.

These four network effects are driving the growth of system value, but the fourth one is particularly important.

In Silicon Valley and around the world, thousands of programmers are using BTC as the cornerstone for building new products and services. At our Andreessen Horowitz venture capital firm, we are seeing more and more outstanding entrepreneurs, many of whom are seasoned professionals from the financial industry, creating companies based on BTC.

With this alone, BTC's challengers will face tough competition. To replace BTC, there must be significant improvements and rapid development; otherwise, the network effect will propel BTC to dominate.

Based on the innovation of BTC, international remittances are an obviously important area. According to World Bank data, hundreds of millions of low-income people work hard in foreign countries every day, sending more than $400 billion in remittances to their home families every year, with banks and payment companies charging astonishing fees of up to 10% or even more.

Switching to BTC remittances with zero or extremely low fees will significantly improve the quality of life for migrant workers and their families. In fact, it is hard to imagine a solution that can more quickly improve the lives of people in the poorest countries.

More broadly, BTC can strongly drive more people around the world to integrate into the modern economic system. About 20 countries globally have our recognized modern banking payment systems, while the remaining 175 countries still have a long way to go.

Therefore, many people in various countries cannot enjoy the products and services that the West takes for granted. Even virtual services like Netflix are only available in about 40 countries. As a universal payment system, BTC can powerfully promote modern economic welfare to benefit everyone around the world.

Even in the United States, the issue of the "unbanked" population paying extremely high fees for basic financial services has long existed. BTC can directly address this problem by providing low-cost services outside of the traditional financial system.

The third interesting application is micropayments. Despite attempts for 20 years, micropayments have always been unfeasible due to the high costs of existing credit/debit and banking systems processing micropayments below ( dollars to the cent level ).

BTC suddenly makes it easy, BTC has the wonderful characteristic of infinite divisibility: currently supporting up to eight decimal places, and possibly more in the future. Therefore, any small amount can be specified (, such as one thousandth of a coin ), and can be sent to anyone globally for almost free.

Taking content monetization as an example. One of the reasons why newspapers and other media find it difficult to charge is that they can only choose between full subscription ( for all content ) or completely free (, which leads to a web filled with ads ). BTC suddenly offered an economic solution to charge small amounts for articles, chapters, hours, video plays, file access, or news pushes.

Another potential application is anti-spam. Future emails and social networks could require a small amount of BTC to receive messages, which is negligible for the sender but enough to deter spam senders ( who can currently send billions of spam messages for free ).

The fourth interesting application is public payments. A news story from months ago caught my attention regarding this idea: during a televised sports event, a viewer held up a sign with a QR code and the words "Give me BTC!".

In 24 hours, he received BTC worth $25,000 from someone he had never met before. This is a historical first: seeing someone ( live, on TV, or in a photo ) holding a sign, and with just two clicks on a smartphone, you can make a transfer—by scanning the QR code on the sign and confirming the send.

Imagine the impact of this protest movement; nowadays, protesters hope to get on television to spread their claims. In the future, they will crave exposure due to fundraising needs, holding up signs for global supporters to donate instantly. For BTC, even the most staunchly anti-capitalist organizations, this is a dream come true for financial technology.

In the coming years, a spectacular drama will unfold around this new technology.

For example, although former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke recently pointed out that cryptocurrencies like BTC "may have long-term prospects, especially in facilitating faster, safer, and more efficient payment systems," there are still prominent economists who express deep skepticism about BTC.

In 1999, the legendary economist Milton Friedman once said: "What is missing but soon to come is a reliable electronic cash, a technology that allows for A to B transfers on the internet without mutual identification, just like I hand you a 20 dollar bill."

Today, the economists attacking BTC may be right, but I support Bernanke and Friedman.

In addition, regulatory issues are bound to emerge endlessly, as almost no country's banking payment regulatory framework anticipates a technology like BTC.

But I hope this article has made you feel the enormous potential of BTC. It is by no means a liberal fairy tale or Silicon Valley hype, but an excellent opportunity to reimagine how the financial system operates in the internet age, serving as a catalyst to reshape a financial system that is more beneficial for individuals and businesses.

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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
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