Altcoin is booming again: Is alt season really here or just an illusion?

Altcoin is making a vibrant comeback — with a strong bullish momentum, a surge in memecoin, and KOLs making six-figure predictions as if reenacting 2021.

However, before letting your emotions sweep you into this whirlwind of excitement, ask yourself: is this truly the beginning of a new glorious altcoin season or just a cleverly staged act?

While social networks are flooded with green candles and hope, the actual market structure tells a more cautious story.

Liquidity remains quite thin for most altcoins, Bitcoin still holds the upper hand and capital flows appear to be fragmented. In summary, sentiment may be optimistic, but the underlying indicators have not yet fully synchronized.

To be honest, excitement has never been enough to sustain a bullish trend.

Is the rumor of the altcoin season returning true?

Source: XFrom bold statements to trending topics, analysts are fueling a new wave of hype about altcoin season.

Some people believe that the bear trap has closed and a comprehensive breakout of altcoins is just a few days away — reflecting the excitement mood of early 2021.

Some experts also emphasize that April 21 is a turning point, citing historical models and the consolidation of Bitcoin as signs that a large amount of capital is about to flow.

Source: XThe stories that turned $200 into hundreds of thousands began to circulate again, fanning waves of optimism in the retail investor community. However, behind that glamorous veneer, not everyone is convinced that this is the true beginning of the altcoin.

It's still not the time for the altcoin season

While social media is collectively shouting the signal to "take off", some analysts are bringing the market back to reality with less optimistic numbers.

According to a report from Marktquant, the 200-day breadth index is currently at 15 — a disappointing figure, much lower than the threshold of 30 that typically appears before large-scale altcoin explosions.

Meanwhile, the 50-day width, although showing signs of improvement, has not been able to break above the 50 level, which is a key milestone reflecting the short- to medium-term momentum strength of the market.

Source: XTypically, the altcoin season is truly confirmed when both technical indicators – the 50-day and 200-day moving averages – are moving in agreement, reflecting a widespread flow of capital. But currently, the picture is not like that.

This is not a comprehensive growth phase, but a highly differentiated market – where only a small group of altcoins with solid technical or fundamental foundations stand out.

The current context prioritizes patience over reckless bets along parabolic lines. This is a phase of selective and defensive strategy, not a time for blind excitement.

Back to the basic indicators

! Source: TradingViewAnother reason why investors should be cautious about the altcoin wave is that ETH/BTC continues to stagnate.

Historically, Ethereum tends to lead altcoin bullish trends — when ETH starts to outperform BTC, it is often a signal for a widespread growth in the entire altcoin market.

However, as of now, ETH/BTC is still stuck in a bearish trend, showing no signs of reversal. The weakness in Ethereum's leading position is an important warning signal for those betting on an upcoming altcoin breakout.

Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, the Total2 index — representing the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding Bitcoin) — has not yet demonstrated sufficiently convincing strength.

The altcoin season usually comes with a stable increase in the dominance rate of altcoins, but the current choppy and sideways action indicates that this is still a selective market — focusing on individual stories rather than a wave of growth across the board.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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