The price of Bitcoin has been in a continuous downtrend since January, and the overall cryptocurrency market has been sluggish. However, starting last night, BTC rebounded, reaching a peak price of over $93,000, which may be a signal that Bitcoin is entering a new long-term upward trend. As of the time of this report, the BTC price is currently at $92,824.17, with an intraday high of $93,518.26. The entire cryptocurrency market has also followed Bitcoin's price trend, with many cryptocurrencies recording double-digit gains. For a moment, the calls for a bull market's return are incessant.
What caused the cryptocurrency market to suddenly rebound significantly? What will the market trend look like in the future?
1. Is Trump going to put down the tariff stick?
In the early hours of today, U.S. President Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145%, and that tariffs will significantly decrease, but will not be zero. When asked if he would take a tough stance against China, he said he would not.
In addition, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted at a loosening of tariff policies during a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan.** White House Press Secretary Levitt stated at a press conference that Trump's relationship with China is moving in the right direction.** For specific details, click on "Trump's Three Concessions at 00:00, 01:00, and 05:00"
Fox Business senior reporter Charles Gasparino stated that today the market is experiencing a day of compromise: Trump seems to be easing his stance on trade policy and the issue of Powell's tenure, causing stock index futures to rise accordingly; Musk also announced that he will gradually step back from the Department of Efficiency to return to Tesla's core business. That's how the market operates; it always forces you to bow your head in defeat. If you ask me: make caving great again! Who knows, this time Trump and Musk might not change their minds again and turn accepting compromise into a life motto!
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated during Tesla's (TSLA.O) earnings call that he will continue to advocate for lower tariffs, but the decision on tariffs is entirely up to President Trump. Musk said, I will provide my advice to the president, and the president will listen to my views, but ultimately it is his decision to make. I have publicly stated many times that I believe lowering tariffs is generally beneficial for prosperity, but this decision ultimately rests with the elected president who represents the people. Therefore, I will continue to advocate for lower tariffs rather than raising them, but that is all I can do.
Forex website Forexlive analyst Adam Button: The dollar continues to recover some of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the stock market is strengthening, and there has been some buying in bonds as well. The market is eager to hear good news. I think the good news today is that Trump is remaining silent on trade issues. This may lead some market participants to believe that he is eager to reach an agreement and that any potential market-turning news is possible. Imagine if the president remains silent on trade issues every day; (the market should be very happy).
Not just the trade war with China, the White House is also set to reach a comprehensive agreement with Japan and India to avoid large-scale tariffs from the U.S., but they may leave many tricky details for later discussions. In the absence of a comprehensive trade agreement, government officials are working to sign what are called "memorandums of understanding" or a broad "framework" for future agreements. One informed source stated, "It may take months to finalize the agreement, as these matters are complex."
2. Paul Atkins officially takes office as SEC Chairman, who is friendly to cryptocurrency.
Paul Atkins sworn in as Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the leadership transition from Gary Gensler has officially been completed. Atkins has previously collaborated with digital asset companies and is expected to continue leading the temporary team in reversing the SEC's prior cryptocurrency resistance. Atkins stated that he is honored by the "trust and confidence" of Trump and the U.S. Senate and is eager to begin work with the other commissioners. In a statement, he said, "We will work together to ensure that the U.S. is the best and safest place in the world to invest and do business."
Previously, he served as a commissioner of the U.S. SEC and ran a Washington consulting firm focused on compliance and policy issues. In addition to his Wall Street connections, Atkins also serves as an advisor to cryptocurrency companies.
Michael Saylor stated: "SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will hold a positive attitude towards Bitcoin."
Trump stated that SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins is the best candidate to ensure regulatory certainty for cryptocurrencies.
Previously, Trump pointed out that the cryptocurrency industry urgently needs clear regulatory policies. Atkins' appointment is an important factor favorable to the crypto market.
3. Concerns about the Independence of the Federal Reserve in Financial Markets
The tension between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is escalating. Their differences mainly focus on the inflationary pressures brought by tariffs and concerns over the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates, casting a shadow over the dollar.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has been falling since February, falling to its lowest point since 2022. Trump's public pressure on Powell and speculation that he might try to remove Powell or other Fed officials have heightened concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, which is a foundational pillar of the U.S. financial system.
The potential consequences of the depreciation of the US dollar on the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary. It is a decentralized, censorship-resistant currency that is entirely governed by code, has a fixed supply schedule, and is not manipulated by a central authority. As confidence in the traditional currency system continues to wane, the narrative around Bitcoin is becoming increasingly strong.
Standard Chartered analyst Jeff Kendrick stated that if concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve persist, Bitcoin could rise to historic highs. He noted that due to its decentralized ledger, cryptocurrency serves as a hedge against the risks of the existing financial system. This was evidenced by the risks in U.S. Treasury bonds after Trump hinted he might dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell due to his desire for rate cuts. Kendrick mentioned that the yield premium for investors buying long-term Treasury bonds relative to short-term bonds has increased significantly, benefiting Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin has decisively broken through months of downtrend, stating, "The prolonged downtrend has ended. When a technical downtrend is broken, a technical uptrend will emerge."
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Fourth, countries and institutions increase their holdings of BTC
Bo Hines, a member of the U.S. President's Advisory Council on Digital Assets, stated in an interview on April 14 that the U.S. is looking for "multiple creative ways" to fund its Bitcoin investments, including using tariff revenue and reassessing the Treasury's gold certificates to create paper surpluses to fund BTC reserves without selling gold.
On April 21, Saylor announced the acquisition of 6,556 Bitcoins at a price of approximately $555.8 million, with an average price of about $84,785 per coin. This brings MicroStrategy's total holdings to an astonishing 538,200 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $48.4 billion at current prices.
The publicly listed company DeFi Development Corporation (formerly Janover Inc.) announced the purchase of 88,164 Solana (SOL), valued at approximately $11.5 million. Following this acquisition, the company's total holding of Solana has increased to 251,842 coins, valued at around $34.4 million (including staking rewards). It is reported that Janover is an artificial intelligence platform connecting the commercial real estate industry, and it announced its name change to DeFi Development Corporation today.
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich posted on platform X that some shareholders have expressed concerns about the company's stock price, and he will take this matter seriously and expressed gratitude. Metaplanet has increased its holdings to 4,855 BTC over the past year, with a year-to-date return of 119.3% in Bitcoin, making it the largest Bitcoin-listed company in Asia and the tenth largest holding company in the world, while still aiming to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of this year. Although there are fluctuations in the stock price in the short term, it is believed that in the medium to long term, the stock price will tend to reflect the fundamentals.
Tesla has not conducted any cryptocurrency transactions in the past three months and currently holds 11,509 bitcoins on its balance sheet.
Meanwhile, those investors who favor traditional financial instruments over directly holding Bitcoin are also starting to regain interest. According to CoinGlass data, on April 21, BTC ETFs recorded an inflow of $381 million—this is undoubtedly a much-needed reversal after a prolonged period of large-scale outflows. Since February, ETFs have experienced 33 days of net outflows, with inflows occurring on only 21 days, and outflows dominating the trading volume. The recent reversal indicates a rekindling of investor confidence, especially from investors in the TradFi camp.
Spot Bitcoin ETF capital flow. Source: SoSoValue
5. The Russia-Ukraine War May Calm Down
On the 21st local time, U.S. President Trump stated that he would announce a peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the next three days. According to reports from multiple U.S. media outlets, the plan may include territorial issues as well as the dispatch of European troops into Ukraine. Previously, Trump also called on Russia to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russia must take action. Too many people are dying, thousands each week, in a terrible and meaningless war. If I were president, this war should not have happened and would not happen!
6. Bitcoin Market Share Rises to Nearly Four-Year High
According to TradingView data, today the market share of Bitcoin (BTC.D) has risen to 64.61%, reaching a new high since February 2021. The high market share of Bitcoin indicates the stagnation of the altcoin market, but it also suggests that a rebound is imminent. According to previous historical data, when Bitcoin's market share surged above 60% last November, altcoins began a small bull market. In both 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin's market share had also reached a high of over 70%, followed by a spectacular rise in the market.
7. What is the future price trend of BTC?
In the long term, DYOR cryptocurrency founder Hitesh Malviya stated that if BTC maintains an MVRV ratio of 2 in the next six weeks, its increase could reach 70% to 80%. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is a key on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin's market value with its realized value (i.e., the value of Bitcoin calculated at its latest trading price). Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 usually indicates overvaluation and market peaks, while an MVRV close to 2 suggests a strong price rally.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
The MVRV score of Bitcoin has remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, consistent with its historical high. Recently, this indicator fell below 2 during a market correction, but is currently attempting to reclaim this key level.
Analysts from Standard Chartered Bank and Intellectia AI have stated that the institutional demand for Bitcoin from exchange-traded fund (ETF) and traders seeking to hedge macroeconomic risks could lead to Bitcoin prices rising more than double this year. Intellectia AI also believes that the drivers of institutional demand (including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges) may continue to push positive price trends.
However, the analysis company CryptoQuant also warned that despite the renewed optimism among investors and new hopes for easing tensions in Sino-U.S. trade, the headwinds against Bitcoin's rise still exist and may limit its further increase. If market sentiment weakens, a market correction may occur.
8. Appendix: Can tariffs really benefit the US economy?
Goldman Sachs economists predict that due to tariffs and policy uncertainties putting pressure on the economy, the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter will grow by only 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, surveys of businesses and consumers indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has yet to show this sign. They infer that economic indicators may start to more clearly reflect a recession in the latter part of summer. "The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the earlier 'event-driven' growth slowdown. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data."
Citi Group's chief economist, Heath, stated on Tuesday that the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. economy is between 40% and 45% due to President Trump's tariffs on other trading partners. Heath anticipates that U.S. GDP will grow in the second quarter, primarily driven by consumer purchases ahead of the tariff implementation. He noted that the greatest impact on U.S. economic growth is expected to manifest in the second half of this year. "Tariffs represent a stagflationary shock to the U.S. economy," Heath said.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report. **The latest removal of Tariffs on Liberation Day has reduced the shock to the global trade order, but the remaining 10 percent of universal tariffs remain a substantial threat to economic growth, while the 145 percent tariffs imposed on China keep the probability of a recession at 60 percent," the report reads. ”
Global economic recession outlook. Source: JPMorgan Chase
Jeffrey Sachs, a professor of economics at Columbia University in the United States, said in a recent interview that the share of the United States in the world economy is declining over time, and the dollar will no longer be the main currency of the world, which cannot be stopped. **The weaponization of the dollar forces other countries to abandon the dollar settlementSachs said that the United States weaponizes the dollar, often uses the dollar's dominant position to threaten other countries and interfere with trade, which will force other countries to gradually abandon the dollar settlement in international trade and use other currencies. Sachs also predicts that in 10 years' time, the role played by the dollar will be completely incomparable to what it is now.
The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
What factors contribute to the rebound of the crypto market? How will the future market trend?
Organizer: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
The price of Bitcoin has been in a continuous downtrend since January, and the overall cryptocurrency market has been sluggish. However, starting last night, BTC rebounded, reaching a peak price of over $93,000, which may be a signal that Bitcoin is entering a new long-term upward trend. As of the time of this report, the BTC price is currently at $92,824.17, with an intraday high of $93,518.26. The entire cryptocurrency market has also followed Bitcoin's price trend, with many cryptocurrencies recording double-digit gains. For a moment, the calls for a bull market's return are incessant.
What caused the cryptocurrency market to suddenly rebound significantly? What will the market trend look like in the future?
1. Is Trump going to put down the tariff stick?
In the early hours of today, U.S. President Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will not reach 145%, and that tariffs will significantly decrease, but will not be zero. When asked if he would take a tough stance against China, he said he would not.
In addition, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hinted at a loosening of tariff policies during a closed-door meeting at JPMorgan.** White House Press Secretary Levitt stated at a press conference that Trump's relationship with China is moving in the right direction.** For specific details, click on "Trump's Three Concessions at 00:00, 01:00, and 05:00"
Fox Business senior reporter Charles Gasparino stated that today the market is experiencing a day of compromise: Trump seems to be easing his stance on trade policy and the issue of Powell's tenure, causing stock index futures to rise accordingly; Musk also announced that he will gradually step back from the Department of Efficiency to return to Tesla's core business. That's how the market operates; it always forces you to bow your head in defeat. If you ask me: make caving great again! Who knows, this time Trump and Musk might not change their minds again and turn accepting compromise into a life motto!
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated during Tesla's (TSLA.O) earnings call that he will continue to advocate for lower tariffs, but the decision on tariffs is entirely up to President Trump. Musk said, I will provide my advice to the president, and the president will listen to my views, but ultimately it is his decision to make. I have publicly stated many times that I believe lowering tariffs is generally beneficial for prosperity, but this decision ultimately rests with the elected president who represents the people. Therefore, I will continue to advocate for lower tariffs rather than raising them, but that is all I can do.
Forex website Forexlive analyst Adam Button: The dollar continues to recover some of yesterday's losses. Meanwhile, the stock market is strengthening, and there has been some buying in bonds as well. The market is eager to hear good news. I think the good news today is that Trump is remaining silent on trade issues. This may lead some market participants to believe that he is eager to reach an agreement and that any potential market-turning news is possible. Imagine if the president remains silent on trade issues every day; (the market should be very happy).
Not just the trade war with China, the White House is also set to reach a comprehensive agreement with Japan and India to avoid large-scale tariffs from the U.S., but they may leave many tricky details for later discussions. In the absence of a comprehensive trade agreement, government officials are working to sign what are called "memorandums of understanding" or a broad "framework" for future agreements. One informed source stated, "It may take months to finalize the agreement, as these matters are complex."
2. Paul Atkins officially takes office as SEC Chairman, who is friendly to cryptocurrency.
Paul Atkins sworn in as Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the leadership transition from Gary Gensler has officially been completed. Atkins has previously collaborated with digital asset companies and is expected to continue leading the temporary team in reversing the SEC's prior cryptocurrency resistance. Atkins stated that he is honored by the "trust and confidence" of Trump and the U.S. Senate and is eager to begin work with the other commissioners. In a statement, he said, "We will work together to ensure that the U.S. is the best and safest place in the world to invest and do business."
Previously, he served as a commissioner of the U.S. SEC and ran a Washington consulting firm focused on compliance and policy issues. In addition to his Wall Street connections, Atkins also serves as an advisor to cryptocurrency companies.
Michael Saylor stated: "SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will hold a positive attitude towards Bitcoin."
Trump stated that SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins is the best candidate to ensure regulatory certainty for cryptocurrencies.
Previously, Trump pointed out that the cryptocurrency industry urgently needs clear regulatory policies. Atkins' appointment is an important factor favorable to the crypto market.
3. Concerns about the Independence of the Federal Reserve in Financial Markets
The tension between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is escalating. Their differences mainly focus on the inflationary pressures brought by tariffs and concerns over the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates, casting a shadow over the dollar.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, has been falling since February, falling to its lowest point since 2022. Trump's public pressure on Powell and speculation that he might try to remove Powell or other Fed officials have heightened concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, which is a foundational pillar of the U.S. financial system.
The potential consequences of the depreciation of the US dollar on the global economy are difficult to predict, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin will be a major beneficiary. It is a decentralized, censorship-resistant currency that is entirely governed by code, has a fixed supply schedule, and is not manipulated by a central authority. As confidence in the traditional currency system continues to wane, the narrative around Bitcoin is becoming increasingly strong.
Standard Chartered analyst Jeff Kendrick stated that if concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve persist, Bitcoin could rise to historic highs. He noted that due to its decentralized ledger, cryptocurrency serves as a hedge against the risks of the existing financial system. This was evidenced by the risks in U.S. Treasury bonds after Trump hinted he might dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell due to his desire for rate cuts. Kendrick mentioned that the yield premium for investors buying long-term Treasury bonds relative to short-term bonds has increased significantly, benefiting Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin has decisively broken through months of downtrend, stating, "The prolonged downtrend has ended. When a technical downtrend is broken, a technical uptrend will emerge."
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital
Fourth, countries and institutions increase their holdings of BTC
Bo Hines, a member of the U.S. President's Advisory Council on Digital Assets, stated in an interview on April 14 that the U.S. is looking for "multiple creative ways" to fund its Bitcoin investments, including using tariff revenue and reassessing the Treasury's gold certificates to create paper surpluses to fund BTC reserves without selling gold.
On April 21, Saylor announced the acquisition of 6,556 Bitcoins at a price of approximately $555.8 million, with an average price of about $84,785 per coin. This brings MicroStrategy's total holdings to an astonishing 538,200 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $48.4 billion at current prices.
The publicly listed company DeFi Development Corporation (formerly Janover Inc.) announced the purchase of 88,164 Solana (SOL), valued at approximately $11.5 million. Following this acquisition, the company's total holding of Solana has increased to 251,842 coins, valued at around $34.4 million (including staking rewards). It is reported that Janover is an artificial intelligence platform connecting the commercial real estate industry, and it announced its name change to DeFi Development Corporation today.
Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich posted on platform X that some shareholders have expressed concerns about the company's stock price, and he will take this matter seriously and expressed gratitude. Metaplanet has increased its holdings to 4,855 BTC over the past year, with a year-to-date return of 119.3% in Bitcoin, making it the largest Bitcoin-listed company in Asia and the tenth largest holding company in the world, while still aiming to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of this year. Although there are fluctuations in the stock price in the short term, it is believed that in the medium to long term, the stock price will tend to reflect the fundamentals.
Tesla has not conducted any cryptocurrency transactions in the past three months and currently holds 11,509 bitcoins on its balance sheet.
Meanwhile, those investors who favor traditional financial instruments over directly holding Bitcoin are also starting to regain interest. According to CoinGlass data, on April 21, BTC ETFs recorded an inflow of $381 million—this is undoubtedly a much-needed reversal after a prolonged period of large-scale outflows. Since February, ETFs have experienced 33 days of net outflows, with inflows occurring on only 21 days, and outflows dominating the trading volume. The recent reversal indicates a rekindling of investor confidence, especially from investors in the TradFi camp.
Spot Bitcoin ETF capital flow. Source: SoSoValue
5. The Russia-Ukraine War May Calm Down
On the 21st local time, U.S. President Trump stated that he would announce a peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the next three days. According to reports from multiple U.S. media outlets, the plan may include territorial issues as well as the dispatch of European troops into Ukraine. Previously, Trump also called on Russia to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russia must take action. Too many people are dying, thousands each week, in a terrible and meaningless war. If I were president, this war should not have happened and would not happen!
6. Bitcoin Market Share Rises to Nearly Four-Year High
According to TradingView data, today the market share of Bitcoin (BTC.D) has risen to 64.61%, reaching a new high since February 2021. The high market share of Bitcoin indicates the stagnation of the altcoin market, but it also suggests that a rebound is imminent. According to previous historical data, when Bitcoin's market share surged above 60% last November, altcoins began a small bull market. In both 2019 and 2021, Bitcoin's market share had also reached a high of over 70%, followed by a spectacular rise in the market.
7. What is the future price trend of BTC?
In the long term, DYOR cryptocurrency founder Hitesh Malviya stated that if BTC maintains an MVRV ratio of 2 in the next six weeks, its increase could reach 70% to 80%. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio is a key on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin's market value with its realized value (i.e., the value of Bitcoin calculated at its latest trading price). Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 usually indicates overvaluation and market peaks, while an MVRV close to 2 suggests a strong price rally.
Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
The MVRV score of Bitcoin has remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, consistent with its historical high. Recently, this indicator fell below 2 during a market correction, but is currently attempting to reclaim this key level.
Analysts from Standard Chartered Bank and Intellectia AI have stated that the institutional demand for Bitcoin from exchange-traded fund (ETF) and traders seeking to hedge macroeconomic risks could lead to Bitcoin prices rising more than double this year. Intellectia AI also believes that the drivers of institutional demand (including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges) may continue to push positive price trends.
However, the analysis company CryptoQuant also warned that despite the renewed optimism among investors and new hopes for easing tensions in Sino-U.S. trade, the headwinds against Bitcoin's rise still exist and may limit its further increase. If market sentiment weakens, a market correction may occur.
8. Appendix: Can tariffs really benefit the US economy?
Goldman Sachs economists predict that due to tariffs and policy uncertainties putting pressure on the economy, the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter will grow by only 0.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Currently, surveys of businesses and consumers indicate an economic slowdown, but official economic data has yet to show this sign. They infer that economic indicators may start to more clearly reflect a recession in the latter part of summer. "The evolution of data in recent weeks is consistent with the earlier 'event-driven' growth slowdown. However, it is still too early to draw strong conclusions from the currently limited data."
Citi Group's chief economist, Heath, stated on Tuesday that the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. economy is between 40% and 45% due to President Trump's tariffs on other trading partners. Heath anticipates that U.S. GDP will grow in the second quarter, primarily driven by consumer purchases ahead of the tariff implementation. He noted that the greatest impact on U.S. economic growth is expected to manifest in the second half of this year. "Tariffs represent a stagflationary shock to the U.S. economy," Heath said.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report. **The latest removal of Tariffs on Liberation Day has reduced the shock to the global trade order, but the remaining 10 percent of universal tariffs remain a substantial threat to economic growth, while the 145 percent tariffs imposed on China keep the probability of a recession at 60 percent," the report reads. ”
Global economic recession outlook. Source: JPMorgan Chase
Jeffrey Sachs, a professor of economics at Columbia University in the United States, said in a recent interview that the share of the United States in the world economy is declining over time, and the dollar will no longer be the main currency of the world, which cannot be stopped. **The weaponization of the dollar forces other countries to abandon the dollar settlementSachs said that the United States weaponizes the dollar, often uses the dollar's dominant position to threaten other countries and interfere with trade, which will force other countries to gradually abandon the dollar settlement in international trade and use other currencies. Sachs also predicts that in 10 years' time, the role played by the dollar will be completely incomparable to what it is now.