Countdown of 100 days! Three major signals predict Bitcoin will hit an epic new high of 135,000.

Written by: Lawrence

According to the latest market analysis, if the current macroeconomic conditions persist, the price of Bitcoin is expected to break $135,000 in the next 100 days, setting a new historical record.

Core Prediction:

A market volatility index (VIX) consistently below 18 will create a risk appetite environment, potentially driving Bitcoin to rise to $135,000 within a hundred days.

The total market value of stablecoins has exceeded $220 billion, injecting strong liquidity into the cryptocurrency market, which is beneficial for Bitcoin's price trend.

The negative Bitcoin financing rate suggests that the market may experience a short squeeze, with prices possibly hitting the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson recently published an analysis report on social platform X, pointing out a significant correlation between Bitcoin prices and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX). Data shows that the VIX index has significantly dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days. Peterson emphasized that when the VIX index falls below 18, it often indicates that the market is entering a risk-on phase, which will create a favorable environment for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

It is worth noting that the forecasting model established by Peterson has a historical accuracy rate of up to 95%. The model indicates that as long as the VIX index remains low, the target price for Bitcoin in the next 100 days will reach $135,000. This prediction aligns with Bitcoin's characteristic of being highly sensitive to market sentiment — a lower volatility index signifies reduced market uncertainty, leading investors to be more inclined to allocate to high-risk assets.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, used the metaphor of "Doctor Avatar" to describe the dual nature of Bitcoin. Timmer points out that Bitcoin has both a store of value function (Dr. Hyde) and a strong speculative character (Mr. Hyde), in contrast to gold's consistent "hard currency" properties.

The relationship between Bitcoin price and global money supply. Source: X.com

He particularly emphasized the dynamic relationship between the price of Bitcoin and the global money supply (M2):

"When M2 growth is accompanied by a rise in the stock market, Bitcoin often performs strongly due to its dual attributes. However, when M2 growth coincides with a stock market correction, Bitcoin's performance tends to be relatively weaker."

This analysis reveals the high sensitivity of Bitcoin to the macroeconomic environment and explains why its price movements are not as stable and predictable as gold.

In terms of market liquidity, the latest data from CryptoQuant shows that the total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $220 billion, marking an unprecedented level of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. This data indicates that, with continuous inflows of capital, Bitcoin has clearly emerged from the shadow of the bear market. Given that stablecoins directly reflect the liquidity conditions of the market, analysts expect Bitcoin's price to potentially reach new highs in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart and financing rate. Data source: Velo.chart

Despite the overall upward trend of Bitcoin, there are subtle changes in the short-term market structure. The latest data shows that the Bitcoin futures funding rate has turned negative again, indicating that short positions in the market are increasing, and traders generally expect prices to continue rising.

It is worth noting that the funding rate on the 4-hour chart has fallen to its lowest negative level since 2025, indicating that short liquidity significantly outweighs long liquidity. This extreme imbalance sets the stage for a potential short squeeze, which could drive the price of Bitcoin to break through the psychological barrier of $100,000.

Currently, there are over 3 billion USD in short positions in the market facing liquidation risks. Once a price uptrend is established, it may trigger a chain reaction, forcing short sellers to close their positions and further amplifying the upward momentum.