Crazy hoarding of 550,000 BTC! MicroStrategy may outperform BTC in 2025.

Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Original Author: Matt Crosby

Compiled and organized by: BitpushNews

With Bitcoin showing solid upward momentum recently, it is worth paying attention to a highly leveraged investment target that is highly tied to BTC's long-term bullish logic - MicroStrategy (MSTR, recently renamed Strategy). This article will take an in-depth look at Strategy's Bitcoin hoarding, assess its risk and reward potential, and explore whether the stock will outperform Bitcoin itself for some time to come. At present, a number of indicators are converging, and the capital rotation may have begun, which may be a key turning point for investors.

The Bitcoin reserve has soared to 550,000 coins.

According to the data from "Treasury Company Analytics" (analysis of Bitcoin holdings by listed companies), it is clear that the "Strategy" company has been accumulating Bitcoin at an astonishing rate in recent months.

At the beginning of the year, the company held about 386,700 bitcoins, and now it holds over 550,000. This astonishing growth indicates that it has adopted a clear and well-thought-out strategy, aiming to position itself ahead of potential breakout trends.

Figure 1: Acquisition, Profit and Loss, and Average Bitcoin Cost Basis Chart of "Strategy" Company

Under the leadership of Michael Saylor, this acquisition was conducted in an orderly manner, investing billions of dollars in Bitcoin through regular weekly purchases, using the dollar-cost averaging method.

The company’s average acquisition cost is nearly $68,500, which means the current market value profit is close to $15 billion. Its total investment has now reached approximately $37.9 billion, and Strategy has become not only the largest enterprise-level Bitcoin holder in the world but also a key player in this bull market, potentially redefining the market landscape.

The BTC/MSTR ratio indicates the potential explosiveness of MSTR.

Rather than just comparing the dollar price trends of Bitcoin and MSTR, it is better to directly measure BTC's performance using Strategy stock as the valuation unit. This ratio can more clearly reveal the relative strength relationship between the two.

Figure 2: If the BTC/MSTR ratio falls below this key level, it may indicate that "Strategy" company is entering a period of sustained outperformance against Bitcoin.

Currently, the BTC/MSTR ratio is at a key historical support level, comparable to the lows established during the bear market bottom of 2018-2019. If this level is broken, it may indicate that Strategy is about to begin a sustained strong period relative to Bitcoin itself. Conversely, if it rebounds from this support level, it suggests that Bitcoin may regain dominance and provide better risk-return in the medium to short term.

In the coming weeks, this chart is worth close attention. If the ratio confirms a downward break, market funds may significantly rotate into Strategy, especially for institutional investors looking to gain high beta Bitcoin exposure through the public market.

MSTR Price Target: If Bitcoin rises to $150,000, MSTR could reach $1,200-$1,600

Although it is not realistic to accurately predict the market trend, we can make a reasonable deduction based on Strategy's current hoarding speed and the law of the Bitcoin cycle. At the current pace, Strategy's bitcoin reserves could reach 700,000 to 800,000 by the end of 2025. Assuming Bitcoin climbs to $150,000 (the consensus expected peak) during the cycle, and Strategy's share price maintains a price-to-book premium of 2.5x to 3x (with an all-time high of 3.4x), its price target could be in the $1,200 to $1,600 range.

This calculation indicates that the upward potential of Strategy has a significant asymmetric advantage, especially against the backdrop of Bitcoin continuing to strengthen. Of course, this prediction relies on the overall bullish premise of the market, but even in more conservative scenarios, Strategy may still demonstrate a return elasticity superior to BTC, although volatility will also be greater.

Figure 3: Forecasting potential Strategy company share prices.

High Beta Attribute: MSTR's "Accelerator" Effect in a Bull Market

To further strengthen this argument, we can compare the historical dollar-cost averaging investment performance of Bitcoin and Strategy stocks.

Using the "Dollar Cost Average Strategies" tool, we can see that if you had invested $10 in Bitcoin daily over the past five years, your total investment would have been $18,260, and it is now worth over $61,000. This is an impressive result, outperforming almost all other asset classes, including gold, which has also recently surged to an all-time high.

Figure 4: Over the past 5 years, investing $10 daily, Bitcoin has outperformed other major asset classes.

If the same daily $10 strategy were applied to Strategy stocks (since its first purchase of Bitcoin in August 2020), the total investment amount would be $11,850. The current value of that position is approximately $108,000, significantly outperforming Bitcoin in the same time window.

This indicates that while Bitcoin remains the underlying investment logic, for investors willing to bear volatility, the Strategy offers greater upside potential.

Figure 5: Since August 2020, investing $10 daily in MSTR has outperformed investing in Bitcoin during the same period.

It is important to recognize that Strategy is actually a high Beta tool linked to Bitcoin. This correlation amplifies gains but also amplifies losses.

If Bitcoin enters a long-term correction, such as a drop of 50% to 60%, the price of Strategy may drop even more. This is not merely a hypothesis. In previous cycles, MSTR has shown extreme volatility, both upward and downward. Investors considering it as part of their allocation must be able to accept higher volatility and the risk of deeper corrections that may occur during periods of general weakness in Bitcoin.

Conclusion: Can MSTR Be the Best Proxy for the Bitcoin Bull Market in 2025?

So, is Strategy worth incorporating into a cryptocurrency-focused diversified portfolio? The answer is yes, but with caution. Given its high correlation with Bitcoin, Strategy offers greater upside potential through leverage, and its historical returns have proven to outperform BTC itself in recent years. However, this advantage comes at the cost of greater risk, especially during periods of market volatility.

Currently, the BTC/MSTR ratio is at a technical turning point: if it breaks the support, Strategy may enter a strong stage; if it rebounds, Bitcoin may still be the better choice in the short term. Regardless, both of these major assets are worth continuous attention. If this bull market enters a new acceleration phase, institutional funds are likely to flow into both BTC and its most well-known stock proxy - Strategy. This rotation of funds may come quickly and fiercely, and early investors may reap substantial rewards.