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Trading Moment: China's "Double Reduction", Bitcoin Fluctuation, and on the Eve of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision, Who is in Control of the Global Financial Rhythm?
1. Market Observation
Keywords: LLJEFFY, ETH, BTC
With China's announcement of RRR and interest rate cuts and confirmation of economic and trade talks with the United States, market risk appetite sentiment has rebounded significantly. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced this morning that he would cut the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, while cutting the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%, and reducing the interest rate of the housing provident fund by 0.25 percentage points. The decision, along with the announcement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry that Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Vicente on the sidelines of his visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12, boosted market sentiment, with Asian stock markets broadly rising and iron ore, steel and other futures prices higher. At the same time, global markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, which will be announced at 2 a.m. tomorrow. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, despite Trump's continued pressure to cut interest rates, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May as high as 96.9%, and the probability of a rate cut is only 3.1%. Goldman Sachs analyst Jan Hatzius team pointed out that at present, the Fed has set a higher threshold for interest rate cuts, and policymakers need to see more convincing evidence of an economic slowdown before acting, especially hard data such as rising unemployment and weak wage growth in the labor market.
At the same time, Bitcoin has made a breakthrough at the policy level, and New Hampshire officially signed HB 302, becoming the first state in the United States to pass "strategic bitcoin reserves" legislation, authorizing state treasurers to buy bitcoin or digital assets with a market value of more than $500 billion, with a maximum position of 5% of total reserve funds. On the UK side, Treasury Secretary for Economy Emma Reynolds has made it clear that the UK will not follow the US lead in building a national crypto reserve, but she prefers to include crypto assets in the existing financial regulatory framework, following the principle of "same risk, same regulation".
Bitcoin has been volatile for two weeks, Glassnode analysis said that the price of Bitcoin may face significant selling pressure as it approaches $99,000, and FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich further pointed out that the current key support levels for BTC are $92,500 and $89,000, and the market has returned to the key resistance zone between December and February. If it falls below $90,000, it will have a big impact on the technical and psychological level, and it may fall below the 200-day moving average. Binance founder CZ predicted in a recent interview that Bitcoin's current cycle could be between $500,000 and $1 million, and he is optimistic about the combination of blockchain with AI, scientific research and other fields. In addition, Futu Securities announced a new development, according to its official website, ordinary users can now deposit BTC and ETH to their Futu accounts through their personal wallets, with a minimum deposit amount of 0.0002 BTC and 0.001 ETH respectively, which will further promote the integration of traditional finance and crypto assets.
The MEME market has been buzzing for the past two days due to the death of Zerebro co-founder Jeffy Yu. The market cap of the related token LLJEFFY once surged to 31 million USD but has now pulled back to 5.7 million USD. Since May 4th at 1:48 PM, the LLJEFFY development wallet and several associated addresses began frequent trading and token burning. Today, it was confirmed that Jeffy Yu faked his death, and as the truth comes to light, this market-disturbing event may come to an end.
2. Key Data (as of May 7, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flow (as of May 6)
4. Today's Outlook
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision in the US until May 7 ( upper limit ) (May 8 2:00)
The Bank of England interest rate decision until May 8 (May 8, 19:00)
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 3 is ( million ) (May 8, 20:30)
Top 500 Market Cap Gainers Today: KAITO up 31.81%, BAN up 21.75%, SYRUP up 15.93%, REX up 13.63%, SHFL up 12.34%.
5. Hot News