With the election approaching, the crypto market is fluctuating.

With only one week left until the US election, over 41 million voters nationwide have completed early voting. As a result, the crypto market has experienced increased volatility, with Bitcoin leading the charge, returning above $71,000 this week. Other crypto assets have also generally strengthened, and the MEME market is particularly lively.

The competition between the two candidates is becoming increasingly fierce. Due to poor response to the hurricane and issues in the Middle East, Harris's approval ratings have declined, while Trump has taken the opportunity to overtake her. From betting odds to swing state polls, Trump's advantage continues to grow, and he is also closely following in traditional polls. At this point, it seems that Trump has a better chance of becoming the next president.

Looking back at the policy proposals of the two, both primarily use government subsidies as a means to promote capital repatriation. Trump tends to stimulate private enterprise development through tax cuts, while Harris prefers to directly subsidize residents. In terms of capital repatriation, Harris continues the previous administration's focus on core industries such as chips and new energy, while Trump insists on aggressive tariffs and the "America First" principle.

Given Trump's current high probability of winning, the financial market is more focused on his policy proposals. According to analysis, Trump's governance direction mainly includes: domestic tax cuts, raising tariffs on foreign goods, relaxing regulations, deporting illegal immigrants, encouraging fossil energy, emphasizing technology, and diplomatic isolationism. These policies combined may raise inflation risks, which could affect the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts, potentially leading to higher terminal rates. For the capital market, if the economy remains resilient, a soft landing may benefit U.S. stocks, cyclical goods, and Bitcoin. However, in extreme cases, rising inflation may suppress the capital market, with safe-haven assets like gold possibly benefiting.

Looking back at the 2016 U.S. election, the market witnessed what was called the "Trump trade." After Trump's victory, optimism surged. U.S. Treasury yields rose from 1.7% to 2.6% within a month, and the U.S. dollar index broke through 103. The three major U.S. stock indices saw an increase of 10% during the same period. In terms of commodities, inflation expectations drove significant increases in copper and crude oil, while gold fell by 3% in the month following the election.

Currently, the capital markets have begun pricing in the possibility of Trump winning. The crypto market has shown particularly prominent performance, which is related to Trump's previous public support for encryption and the recent launch of his family's encryption project.

According to predictions from market data, the betting amount has exceeded $2.1 billion, with Trump's winning probability reaching 66.2%, far surpassing his opponent by 33 percentage points. Bitcoin has reacted strongly to this, continuing to rise as the election approaches, and has now surpassed $71,000. Anticipatory factors are undoubtedly one of the key reasons driving this increase.

There has been a heated discussion among various institutions and analysts regarding the trends of Bitcoin and the crypto market before and after the election. Most traders believe that the election represents an important trading opportunity and tend to bet on a rebound after the election. Data shows that the funding rate for Ethereum perpetual options has reached a recent high, indicating that the strategy of buying the dip is prevalent.

Top traders believe that an upward trend will open after the election, noting that speculative long positions in October have basically been cleared, and most people will avoid risk a week after the election.

From the options market perspective, traders are preparing for a bullish trend in Bitcoin in the days following the election. The outstanding options contracts expiring on November 8 are valued at over $2 billion, with the main strike prices between $70,000 and $80,000. The number of call options is twice that of put options, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market.

Many institutions are also optimistic. Some predict that Bitcoin may approach its historical high on election day. Other analyses suggest that regardless of who is elected president, the policies adopted will drive up inflation, which will in turn benefit Bitcoin and commodity prices.

Of course, analysts also remind us of the risks of short-term volatility, believing that the market may have underestimated the risks of questioning the election results. There are also views that indicate, based on on-chain data, that the market may already be at a temporary peak before the election.

Overall, market sentiment remains optimistic, and the macro factors affecting the crypto market are shifting from monetary policy to election results. Most analysts predict that Bitcoin is likely to reach new highs in this trading cycle.

However, it is important to note that the current market reaction mainly reflects expectations, and a correction may occur after those expectations are realized. Even if Trump is elected, the actual governance will still need to consider Congressional factors. The latest polls show that the Republican Party has an advantage in both the House and the Senate, which further increases the competitive pressure on the Democratic Party.

Regardless, market fluctuations before and after the election are inevitable. Investors should remain vigilant and recognize the ever-changing nature of the election situation. During this period, Bitcoin and MEME coins may be the most active sectors in the crypto market.