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How to build your own trading system
Recently, I have been thinking about how to build a personal trading system. I believe a complete trading system should include the following content:
1. What to buy? - Variety selection
2. When to buy? — Trading System
3. How much to buy? - Position control
4. When to sell? — Take profit and stop-loss logic
5. What is the trading frequency? - Short-term (daily), medium-term (weekly, monthly), long-term (quarterly, annually)
1. Variety Selection
Regarding what to buy, I personally think it generally follows the following logical thinking.
First of all, what is the current macroeconomic environment like? If we only consider the domestic economic situation without taking into account the overseas background, then if the economic performance is relatively good, the stock market and some cyclical commodities (such as steel, copper, etc.) will perform well, while bonds will perform poorly. Conversely, if the overall economy is relatively poor, then bonds will perform better.
Secondly, after selecting a certain type of asset direction, it is necessary to conduct a comparison within the assets. Taking stocks as an example, one needs to consider which industry's stocks to buy or which specific stock to purchase. This choice can be determined based on policy direction, industry prosperity, market attention, and whether it is a leading company.
2. Timing for Buying
Once you have decided what to buy, the next step is to determine when to buy. The decision of when to buy can be divided into two schools of thought. One is value investing, where an individual conducts in-depth research on a company and can accurately assess its price. The idea is to buy when the company's price is below its fair value and sell when it is above fair value. The other is technical analysis, which involves buying and selling based on certain technical indicators, such as moving averages, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc. Relevant theories include Elliott Wave Theory, Dow Theory, and Gann Theory. Currently, I am learning and using the improved Chande theory by Duyehua and Baiyi.
3. Position Control
After determining the timing for buying, how much to buy is also very important and is key to whether one can make a profit. Control the position based on ATR, or make judgments according to personal experience (which requires a higher level of personal trading ability).
4. Selling and Trading Frequency
When to sell, trading frequency, and one's reasons for buying. If the purchase is based on value analysis, then selling is also based on the return to that value, and the time for value return is generally longer, possibly on an annual basis. If trading operations are based on technical analysis, then trading frequency may be more related to the cycle of one's operations. Generally, stocks are traded on a T+1 basis, so the trading frequency is mostly daily, weekly, or monthly. Futures can be traded on a T0 basis, so trading frequency may be in minutes, daily, weekly, or monthly. If the investment is primarily based on technical analysis, then determining one's trading frequency is crucial.
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