Violent pump and risk balancing strategy driven by Ethereum Exchange Rate

The impact of core logic and Exchange Rate strength

• The upward momentum driven by the Exchange Rate: The daily Exchange Rate has seen two consecutive days of increasing bullish candlesticks, the Fibonacci 1:1 target has been reached, and a breakthrough at 0.02992 would look towards 0.03250-0.03355 — the strong Exchange Rate directly drives the second coin to "act involuntarily"; when the first coin adjusts, it does not follow the decline, and when it rebounds, it "screams", becoming a core feature at present.

• Continuation of the replicated trend: The daily chart's white box 1:1 trend replication has been successful, with only half completed so far. If it stabilizes above $3558, $4000 and above can be expected, but the market must remain free of negative news and the Exchange Rate must maintain strength.

Key Point Trading Strategy

• Long Position Conditions:

1. Volume breakout at $3474 → Buy on the right side (for the bold), target $3479 → $3505, stop loss on a breakout;

2. Stand firm at $3505 → increase long positions, aiming for $3558. If the daily closing price stabilizes at this level, it will open up the space for $4000.

• Shorting Conditions:

1. When the volume drops below 3443 USD → short on the right side, target 3402 → 3344 USD, recover stop loss;

2. 4-hour level breaks below $3402 → increase short position, target $3312, clear pullback signal.

Form and Risk Warning

• Daily level:

◦ RSI overbought warning risk (yellow box), although it does not mean it will drop immediately, a pullback may reach as low as 3212 dollars, beware of the extreme volatility of "if it can rise by 300 dollars, it can drop by 600 dollars";

◦ 3558 USD is the pivotal point for bulls and bears; if it holds, the strong momentum will continue; otherwise, it will trigger an overbought pullback.

• Operational Discipline:

◦ Do not lose your mind during a violent pump, chase with light positions + strict stop loss (refer to 3402 USD);

◦ In an overbought state, profitable long positions can be partially closed for profit while retaining some positions to bet on the trend, and setting up defenses.

Summary: Ethereum is currently driven strongly by exchange rates, but the concerns of being overbought should be taken seriously. The core of the operation: those who are bold can lightly chase breakthroughs, while the cautious should wait for a confirmation of a pullback. Do not be greedy and do not cling to the battle; remember that the risks after a surge often lie hidden within the frenzy.