Analysis of the Strength and Potential Pullback Risks Driven by Ethereum Exchange Rate

Core Logic and Divergence Concerns

• The exchange rate is the core of hard assets: the reason why the second token is strong lies in the fact that the exchange rate "has stood up"—the rise in the exchange rate directly drives the price up, but one must be wary of the divergence risk of "the first token not rising while the second token rises alone". This kind of "last flight of the eagle" could be a "flash in the pan", and the pullback risk has not disappeared;

• Bearish flag suppression: Although there was a breakout of the box on the hourly level, it has not broken through the upper boundary of the bearish flag, and the pattern remains valid—before the breakout, the risk of a pullback always exists, and one should not ignore the technical warnings due to short-term strength.

Key Level Trading Strategy

• Long Conditions:

1. Volume breakout at 3720 USD → right side chase long (short-term long, cautious for the fearful of heights), target 3752 → 3777 USD, stop loss on break.

2. Stand firm at $3720 → take a light position to go long, looking up at $3791 (Fibonacci 1:1 target), with volume as the core verification.

• Shorting conditions:

1. If the price breaks below 3685 USD → short on the right side, target 3677 → 3628 USD, retract stop loss;

2. 4-hour level breaks below 3677 USD → increase short position, targeting 3575 USD, pullback signal is clear.

Pattern and Target Level Warning

• The Ultimate Fibonacci Pressure:

◦ The 1:1 target of $3791 may be reached within the day, but the 1.618 target of $3983 is strong resistance, where a significant pullback is likely to occur ("There is no market that rises without a pullback");

• The Trap of FOMO Emotion:

◦ Current pump may create the illusion of "fear of missing out"; be cautious when chasing high positions. It is advisable to wait until tomorrow evening when the U.S. stock market opens, and then make decisions based on the rebound in liquidity, taking responsibility for the funds.

Operational Discipline and Strong Response

• Short positions do not linger in battle:

◦ The take-profit reference for chasing long positions is between 3777-3791 USD, do not expect to touch 3983 USD, to avoid profit giving back during a pullback;

• Confirmation of flag pattern breakout:

◦ If the bearish flag's upper boundary is broken with increased volume, a temporary adjustment to a bullish outlook may be considered, but one should still be cautious of a reversal following divergence.

Summary: The strong performance driven by the Ethereum Exchange Rate conceals the risk of divergence. The core operation: go long quickly and exit quickly; turn bearish if support is broken; do not chase FOMO at high levels; wait for clear signals after the US stock market opens; technical warnings should not be overlooked.