XRP Price Prediction: Long positions are rallying to challenge the key level of $3.00, will August be the moment of breakthrough?

According to Gate market data, as of August 4, 2025, the trading price of XRP hovers between $2.78 and $3.09, with a decline of nearly 10% in the past week. Despite short-term pressure, market analysts generally believe that $3.00 has become a key psychological and technical battleground for bulls and bears, and once stabilized, it may trigger a new wave of rise.

##Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies: Data Reveals Market Divergence

• Bullish signal:
  • Whales accumulate at low prices: On-chain data shows that over 280 million XRP have been accumulated by whale addresses recently, with the proportion of long-term holders increasing, reflecting the confidence of large investors in the future market.
  • Technical structure remains intact: Although there has been a pullback on the daily chart, XRP still remains stable above the key support level of $2.47 (a position transformed from historical resistance). If this level holds, the mid-term target can be seen at $4.804 (pump of 44%).
  • Altcoin season index is low: the current value is 41, far below the historical peak of 75, indicating that there is ample room for altcoins to rise.
• Bearish risk:
  • Significant selling pressure appears: In the past 48 hours, over 720 million XRP have been sold, including a transfer of 200 million suspected to be from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, intensifying market panic.
  • Technical indicators weaken: the 4-hour chart forms a descending triangle. If it loses $3.00, it may test the $2.40 - $2.60 support zone (a fall of 16%).
  • Market sentiment is cautious: Derivative open interest decreased by 7.12%, short positions increased by $17 million, indicating that short-term traders are leaning towards defense.

##Key Technical Levels: Break $3.18 or Trigger Trend Reversal The current price is forming a concentrated trading area between $3.00 - $3.18, and this range will become a key benchmark for the market in August:

• If it breaks through $3.18 with volume: it may confirm a "bullish flag" structure, short-term target $3.40, medium-term challenge historical resistance $3.66;
• If it falls below $3.00 and continues to be under pressure: it may test $2.48 (strong accumulation zone on-chain) or even $2.28.

Analyst Javon Marks emphasized: Holding $2.47 is a necessary condition for XRP to hit $4.804. If it successfully breaks through, a higher target can be looked at $7.138.

Three Major Catalysts in August: Fundamental Support for Bullish Logic

1. August 15: Ripple vs SEC joint status report. If both parties reach a settlement or the SEC withdraws its appeal, it will eliminate long-term regulatory uncertainty and inject strong confidence into XRP.
2. End of August: AI models are collectively bullish

• Gemini AI predicts XRP will rise to $4.45 before August 31 (current potential rise over 60%);
• Perplexity AI gives a target range of $3.35 - $3.90.

3. The shift in macro policy anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the end of 2025. If signals are released earlier, it may drive a recovery in liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.

##Institutional Involvement and ETF Expectations: Long-term Value Support

• Institutional interest surges: Spot trading volume on US exchanges has risen significantly, reflecting that compliant funds are positioning in XRP;
• XRP Spot ETF Countdown: The SEC will make a ruling on the applications from Grayscale and 21Shares on October 18 - 19. If approved, XRP may replicate the explosive rise seen after BTC/ETH ETF approvals.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse pointed out: regulatory clarity is the core driving force behind recent capital inflows, and institutional adoption of XRP has entered an "irreversible stage."

##Scenario Prediction and Operational Strategy (August - September)

| Scenario | Trigger Condition | Target Price | Probability | |------------|--------------------------------------|-----------------------|--------| | Strong Breakthrough | Daily close above $3.18 + Increased capital | $3.66 → $4.45 | Moderate | | Consolidation | Steady at $3.00, waiting for regulatory clarity | $3.20 - $3.50 | High | | Deep pullback | Lost $2.80, BTC drags down the market | $2.40 - $2.60 | Lower |

##Conclusion: August may be a key turning month for XRP this year Currently, XRP is at the end of a "converging triangle," with a rare resonance between technical and fundamental aspects. If the legal good news lands on August 15, along with the $4.45 path indicated by the AI bullish model, bulls are expected to reclaim $3.00 in one go and initiate a "frenzied pumping" mode. Investors are advised to closely watch for breakout signals between $3.00 and $3.18, hold steady if secure, and protect if lost, patiently waiting for the monthly-level trend reversal window to open.