#打榜优质内容# What is PPI? It is the most sensitive inflation thermometer at the production end. This reading "exploded", meaning that corporate costs are "running a high fever". If this fever does not subside, the consequences are very direct:

Inflation expectations are rising again: with higher costs for businesses, ultimately the burden falls on consumers. Can consumer prices (CPI) remain unaffected? With consumers' wallets tightening, the Federal Reserve is even less likely to ease off on the gas in this "Long March" against inflation.
"Heavy shadows" loom over September rate cuts: there were previously optimistic predictions that the Federal Reserve might make a "big move" to cut rates by 50 basis points. Now? With the PPI's sudden drop, mainstream institutions have lowered their expectations—if they can cut by 25 basis points in September, that would already be a concession to the market. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a rate cut in September has plummeted from 85% last week to around 75%.
The market votes with its feet: once the PPI was released, US stock futures fell in response, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields rose—this is a typical "risk asset retreat" scenario. The expectation of interest rate cuts was doused with cold water by the PPI.

Is there a "script" behind the data?

The BLS, which publishes the PPI, is currently in the spotlight. Just recently, its head was replaced by Trump, and the new leader is believed to have a policy orientation that aligns more closely with the former president. (Background event: Trump's replacement of the head of the statistics bureau has sparked discussions). This personnel change made many people anxious at the time: "Will this critical data be 'polished'?" However, the PPI is somewhat different from non-farm data. Its collection method is more "hardcore"—companies provide direct quotes, and industry price lists are reported in black and white. The statistical process is relatively "rigid," making it very difficult to "adjust" artificially, and any changes must be clearly stated in the statistical explanation. Therefore, this time, the "spiciness" of the PPI is likely to be "genuine" spiciness, not fake spiciness with a "filter." Even with a change in leadership, the professional processes and institutional guarantees of the statistical team remain intact, so the data should essentially be accurate. This time, the "fever" has a degree of credibility.

Is the "macroeconomic dependence" in the crypto world a blessing or a curse?

As soon as the "inflation signal bomb" PPI goes off, the cryptocurrency circle instantly goes "flat to find cover"—this is by no means a coincidence. It rings the alarm again: the cryptocurrency market has developed a deep "macro dependency syndrome." A subtle hint from the Federal Reserve, an unexpected fluctuation in a key data point, can have a power far exceeding a significant upgrade or application explosion on a blockchain.
In this era of "data as market trends," paying attention to the economic calendar may be more important than watching the market. Macroeconomic data is no longer background noise in the crypto space, but rather the conductor that determines the heartbeat rhythm of the market.

There is still more than a month until the potential rate cut window at the end of September, as generally expected by the market. Given the historical "nature" of the crypto market, it would be completely "normal" to see some unexpected fluctuations during this period. Being prepared to deal with volatility is key.