Ethereum Price Prediction: Will it Break $10,000 in 2025?

Since the low point in April, the price of ETH has continued to rise, currently surpassing the $4500 mark. The launch of the Bitcoin ETF in 2024 is seen as the beginning of a bull market, while 2025 could be the stage for Ethereum. This article analyzes whether ETH has the potential to hit the $10,000 mark through six different valuation methods.

1. ETH/BTC Ratio Analysis

The ETH/BTC ratio has remained relatively stable in the long term. Currently, the ratio is 0.0372, which is at a lower level in the historical context of the past five years, suggesting that ETH may be undervalued. Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, assuming the BTC price stays around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be about $6,214. If we refer to the previous bull market ratio of 0.06-0.08, the ETH price could reach $7,200-$9,600.

2. Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings Impact

Recently, there has been a significant influx of off-exchange funds into Ethereum ETFs, which not only brings positive sentiment but also creates a huge buying pressure. Data shows that the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs has reached $25.712 billion, with a holding volume of approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the circulating supply of ETH. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the circulating supply.

If the ETF and institutional holding ratio increases to 10%, the ETH price could rise to $4647; if it reaches 15%, the price could reach $5070; if it reaches 20%, the price could approach $6000. This growth may raise the central price of ETH in a long-term and stable manner.

3. Application of Metcalfe's Law

Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its active users. According to current data, if the daily active address count (DAA) increases to 1 million, the ETH price could reach $4,768; if the DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price could reach $5,769; if the DAA reaches 1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price could reach $8,058.

It is worth noting that once the on-chain activity resonates with the capital flow, the price of ETH may be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, and the increase may exceed expectations.

4. NVT Model Analysis

The NVT (Network Value to Transactions) model is similar to the price-to-earnings ratio for cryptocurrencies. Based on different scenarios, the price of ETH may range between $4059 and $8947 after 6 months; it may range between $4971 and $11598 after 12 months. This indicates that the network effect of ETH is supporting a valuation floor of $5000 to $12000.

5. On-chain Cash Flow Model

Asset management company VanEck predicts that based on an on-chain cash flow model, the price of ETH is expected to approach $6000 by 2025. Their long-term forecast shows that by 2030, ETH could rise to around $11800.

6. Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, although the ETH price is facing some historical selling pressure, the overall trend is still slowly rising. There are signs of breaking through the average resistance band at the daily level, and if the breakout is successful, it may directly reach the daily overbought line (around $5600). Overall, there is a possibility that ETH will challenge $6000 in the medium term.

Comprehensive Forecast

Combining various valuation methods, there is a high possibility that ETH will reach the range of $6000-8000 in 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible. In an extremely optimistic scenario, it could even reach the range of $12,000-15,000.

It is important to note that the price of Ether is influenced by multiple factors and has significant volatility. Investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance and bear the investment risks themselves.