The metaverse that emerged from the science fiction novel "Avalanche" is now performing an "avalanche of land prices".
According to a survey by CoinGecko, the prices of otherdeed for Otherside, The Sandbox, Decentraland, Somnium Space, and Voxels Metaverse, five well-known metaverse lands, have recently declined to varying degrees.
Among them, singer Lin Junjie once spent US$123,000 to buy three pieces of virtual real estate in Decentraland, which are now only worth about US$10,000, with a floating loss of 91%.
(Source: CoinGecko)
**The "land price avalanche" is one of the most obvious manifestations of the ebb in the overall popularity of the Metaverse. In addition, the "attention" of major manufacturers at home and abroad to the Metaverse is not as good as before. **
Meta’s RealityLabs, All in Metaverse, will have a total loss of US$13.717 billion in 2022, an increase of 34.57% from the loss in 2021; Roblox, once the first stock in the Metaverse, has lost about US$60 billion in market value in one year; Tencent also announced XR full-line jobs Cancel.
**Because the major manufacturers at home and abroad have already attracted the attention of AIGC. **
Overseas, all Microsoft Office, Azure cloud services and other products will integrate ChatGPT across the board, and Google has also released Bard, a next-generation dialogue AI system based on Google's LaMDA model. Focusing on China, Baidu officially announced that it is developing a large-scale model project "Wen Xin Yi Yan", and Chinese companies such as Alibaba and JD.com also stated that they are developing or planning to develop similar products.
Then, with the continuous development of deep learning-based natural language processing technology, will the large generative AI models represented by Wenxinyiyan and ChatGPT in the future further squeeze the living space of the Metaverse?
**AIGC doesn't want to be an enemy of the Metaverse? **
Between Metaverse and AIGC, it is by no means a "zero-sum game" in which what one gains must be what one loses, but more like a "positive-sum game".
After all, Metaverse is a new type of digital ecology formed by the aggregation of many advanced technologies such as 5G communication, artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet, and blockchain. **In the digital ecology of Metaverse, AI is originally one of the underlying technologies that support the experience. **
**From this perspective, the emergence and maturity of large generative AI models represented by Wenxinyiyan and ChatGPT will only further "ripen" the Metaverse. **
**First, AIGC can inject an "experience soul" into the Metaverse. **
Take XR and Digihuman as an example, if the Metaverse is regarded as a large-scale MMORPG game, then the virtual Digihuman is like the NPC and the player in the game, and XR is the channel linking the player and the game, ** gone" Channel" and "player", this game will lose its "soul". **
**However, with the current technical level of XR and digital humans, it is obviously not enough to support the "story" of the Metaverse. **You should know that so far, the virtual digital human technology is not intelligent enough, nor does it support continuous dialogue with memory; VR also faces the dilemma of lack of content and dizziness that is difficult to overcome.
However, when XR and the virtual digital human are "connected" to AIGC, not only can the language interaction function of the virtual digital human be optimized, but also the knowledge map of the virtual digital human can also move from a single field to a comprehensive field; XR hardware can also be used in the system layer, etc. Calling ChatGPT-related functions in multiple links may usher in new changes in the way AR content interacts.
With this in mind, at least a dozen virtual digital human manufacturers have announced that their virtual digital human products are connected to the ChatGPT interface. Enterprises have already begun to try to integrate ChatGPT into their products.
**Secondly, AIGC can help the formation of metaverse content creation ecology. **
Although the current generative AI represented by ChatGPT is mainly based on 2D information such as text and image generation, it is foreseeable that as the iteration speed of large models continues to accelerate, generative AI will soon involve the 3D field.
**At that time, AIGC may greatly improve the efficiency of content generation, reduce costs, and provide tool support for building a more grand scenario of the Metaverse. **
To give a simple example, in a "complete" metaverse game, at least to reach the level of the oasis in "Ready Player One", then it is necessary to build more diverse and more detailed scenes. People in the industry have estimated that if visual effects are to be considered, the cost of a professional painter's picture may be 5,000 to 10,000 yuan, and the funds needed to build a complete world will be an astronomical figure. Two Internet companies can afford it.
In such a market environment, AIGC, as a new content creation method after PGC and UGC, adopts artificial intelligence technology to automatically produce content, and the cost of a picture can be reduced to 4 cents, or even lower, and the efficiency is higher. For example, with the help of NVIDIA instant-ngp and tiny-cuda-nn, the speed of Netease Yaotai neural implicit surface modeling has been optimized from 10 hours at the beginning to 10 to 20 minutes, compared with traditional MAYA manual modeling Efficiency increased by a hundred times.
Combining these characteristics, the "Intelligent Relativity Theory" believes that even though the current AIGC is booming, the metaverse is losing its popularity in the past, but AIGC is not here to compete with the metaverse or even take away its "job". On the contrary, there is a positive linear relationship between the two, and the maturity of generative AI technology will bring breakthrough opportunities for the Metaverse.
**Is the metaverse a "true collapse" or a "false flameout"? **
AIGC will play an important role in the construction of the metaverse in the future, but it is undeniable that the metaverse is now entering a "labor period", which is inseparable from the emergence and development of AIGC.
An obvious practical problem is that in the two high-intensity arenas of Metaverse and AIGC, there are no companies that can enter the arena at the same time with "rich and powerful".
If you want to run through a model with more than 10 billion parameters, you must at least achieve the level of "kcal/month". Based on the average price of 50,000 yuan for a GPU, 1,000 GPUs mean a monthly computing power of 50 million cost.
According to industry estimates, GPT-3 involves 175 billion parameters, and the training cost is about 12 million US dollars. According to the report of Guosheng Securities, the cost of GPT-3 training is about 1.4 million US dollars, and each training task is expensive.
AIGC’s cost input still has clear accounts to calculate, but it is difficult to see the end of the cost in the metaverse that “can accommodate the future”.
In particular, when the macro-economy is weak and the industry’s “main theme” is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, most companies will make the most cost-effective choice between the “relatively distant” Metaverse and the “close enough” AIGC.
Moreover, in addition to the higher predictability of cost-effective AIGC, in terms of returns, the domestic metaverse has not yet achieved large-scale commercialization, and it is difficult to bring returns in the short term, but AIGC already has a predictable commercialization link. **
Jiang Guowen, a consultant to Huawei's Blue Army, also said: "Currently, the development of Metaverse has not crossed the rift, and it is expected to enter the early stage of business commercialization in 10 years."
In contrast, the generative AI technology represented by ChatGPT can actually improve the productivity of users in the fields of search and content tools, and can also bring a certain amount of income. Since Baidu launched Wenxin Yiyan internal testing on March 16, 150,000 companies have applied for Wenxin Yiyan internal testing, and more than 300 ecological partners have achieved test results in more than 400 specific scenarios.
Comparing the two, it is not difficult to understand why more companies are willing to invest resources in AIGC instead of Metaverse.
**The emergence of AIGC has indeed "inactively" squeezed a part of the "living space" of the Metaverse. From a long-term perspective, the Metaverse still has a high level of imagination. **
**On the one hand, although some Internet companies are "retreating", there are many local governments in China that still insist on launching a new layout in the metaverse field. **
For example, the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology recently released the major application scenario requirements of the Metaverse in Suzhou City in 2023, involving 30 demand scenarios in 7 major fields, and began to solicit solutions from the society; Henan Province issued the "2023 Henan Province Digital Transformation Strategic Work Plan" 》, to support Zhengzhou City in striving to create a pilot zone for the innovation and application of the National Metaverse.
Up to now, nearly 40 provinces, municipalities and regions in China have released the Metaverse industry development planning documents. In addition, more than 10 regions have established Metaverse-related industry funds with a total fund size of nearly 30 billion yuan. UBS (UBS) last Moon added Metaverse to its list of long-term investments.
**The "retirement" of enterprises is mostly considered from the actual economic level, but the "advancement" of the government represents that the industry is the future direction. The potential and importance of the metaverse industry is self-evident. **
On the other hand, according to Gartner's technology maturity curve, the development of metaverse technology is also in line with the overall trend.
In March 2021, taking advantage of the opportunity of Roblox's listing, the concept of metaverse exploded, causing the industry to overheat, and then began to experience coldness this year. **When the popularity of the metaverse falls to a relatively bottom position, the bubble will run out, and it will gradually start to climb from the bottom, and the development of the industry will be more rational and healthy. **
Because of this, some companies that really insist on investing in the metaverse have clearly emerged, and may lead the metaverse to move forward healthily in their respective fields in the future.
For example, the Gulangyu Metaverse project of China Mobile Migu provides users with digital life experiences such as cultural tourism, interactive entertainment, consumer shopping, etc., and creates the "First Island of Metaverse" with independent control, free exploration, instant interaction, and real-time online ; As the virtual technology support for the 2023 Online Spring Festival Gala, Netease Yaotai also successfully created the first Metaverse venue for the Online Spring Festival Gala for CCTV, and constructively equipped with smart face pinching, free dressing and a variety of interesting interactive gameplay, providing audiences with Bringing a subversive evening party experience combining reality and reality.
According to a global development research report released by Meta, by 2031, the development and popularization of metaverse industries will contribute 3.01 trillion US dollars to the global economy. And those real investors in the metaverse after the bubble is skimmed must be the biggest contributors to the contribution and will also benefit from it.
All in all, AIGC, as a new content production method, and the Metaverse, which is a new social form, currently seem to be in a "competitive" relationship one after another, but in fact it is a complementary "symbiotic" relationship. The maturity of AIGC will bring breakthrough opportunities to Metaverse; and the sound development of Metaverse will provide unlimited scenarios for the implementation of AIGC.
Although due to the high market expectations and hype in the early stage, the Metaverse, which is still in the concept and prototype stage, has some stamina, but perhaps as Liu Bai, the person in charge of Netease Yaotai, once said: "Metaverse is not cold, but has become more Benign or rational, the metaverse must still be a very important development direction in the future.”
On the day when the tide recedes, the valuation of metaverse companies may gradually return.
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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
The AIGC that created the "wind" "blown out" the Metaverse?
Source: Intelligent Relativity, Author: Qingyue
The metaverse that emerged from the science fiction novel "Avalanche" is now performing an "avalanche of land prices".
According to a survey by CoinGecko, the prices of otherdeed for Otherside, The Sandbox, Decentraland, Somnium Space, and Voxels Metaverse, five well-known metaverse lands, have recently declined to varying degrees.
Among them, singer Lin Junjie once spent US$123,000 to buy three pieces of virtual real estate in Decentraland, which are now only worth about US$10,000, with a floating loss of 91%.
**The "land price avalanche" is one of the most obvious manifestations of the ebb in the overall popularity of the Metaverse. In addition, the "attention" of major manufacturers at home and abroad to the Metaverse is not as good as before. **
Meta’s RealityLabs, All in Metaverse, will have a total loss of US$13.717 billion in 2022, an increase of 34.57% from the loss in 2021; Roblox, once the first stock in the Metaverse, has lost about US$60 billion in market value in one year; Tencent also announced XR full-line jobs Cancel.
**Because the major manufacturers at home and abroad have already attracted the attention of AIGC. **
Overseas, all Microsoft Office, Azure cloud services and other products will integrate ChatGPT across the board, and Google has also released Bard, a next-generation dialogue AI system based on Google's LaMDA model. Focusing on China, Baidu officially announced that it is developing a large-scale model project "Wen Xin Yi Yan", and Chinese companies such as Alibaba and JD.com also stated that they are developing or planning to develop similar products.
Then, with the continuous development of deep learning-based natural language processing technology, will the large generative AI models represented by Wenxinyiyan and ChatGPT in the future further squeeze the living space of the Metaverse?
**AIGC doesn't want to be an enemy of the Metaverse? **
Between Metaverse and AIGC, it is by no means a "zero-sum game" in which what one gains must be what one loses, but more like a "positive-sum game".
After all, Metaverse is a new type of digital ecology formed by the aggregation of many advanced technologies such as 5G communication, artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet, and blockchain. **In the digital ecology of Metaverse, AI is originally one of the underlying technologies that support the experience. **
**From this perspective, the emergence and maturity of large generative AI models represented by Wenxinyiyan and ChatGPT will only further "ripen" the Metaverse. **
**First, AIGC can inject an "experience soul" into the Metaverse. **
Take XR and Digihuman as an example, if the Metaverse is regarded as a large-scale MMORPG game, then the virtual Digihuman is like the NPC and the player in the game, and XR is the channel linking the player and the game, ** gone" Channel" and "player", this game will lose its "soul". **
**However, with the current technical level of XR and digital humans, it is obviously not enough to support the "story" of the Metaverse. **You should know that so far, the virtual digital human technology is not intelligent enough, nor does it support continuous dialogue with memory; VR also faces the dilemma of lack of content and dizziness that is difficult to overcome.
However, when XR and the virtual digital human are "connected" to AIGC, not only can the language interaction function of the virtual digital human be optimized, but also the knowledge map of the virtual digital human can also move from a single field to a comprehensive field; XR hardware can also be used in the system layer, etc. Calling ChatGPT-related functions in multiple links may usher in new changes in the way AR content interacts.
With this in mind, at least a dozen virtual digital human manufacturers have announced that their virtual digital human products are connected to the ChatGPT interface. Enterprises have already begun to try to integrate ChatGPT into their products.
**Secondly, AIGC can help the formation of metaverse content creation ecology. **
Although the current generative AI represented by ChatGPT is mainly based on 2D information such as text and image generation, it is foreseeable that as the iteration speed of large models continues to accelerate, generative AI will soon involve the 3D field.
**At that time, AIGC may greatly improve the efficiency of content generation, reduce costs, and provide tool support for building a more grand scenario of the Metaverse. **
To give a simple example, in a "complete" metaverse game, at least to reach the level of the oasis in "Ready Player One", then it is necessary to build more diverse and more detailed scenes. People in the industry have estimated that if visual effects are to be considered, the cost of a professional painter's picture may be 5,000 to 10,000 yuan, and the funds needed to build a complete world will be an astronomical figure. Two Internet companies can afford it.
In such a market environment, AIGC, as a new content creation method after PGC and UGC, adopts artificial intelligence technology to automatically produce content, and the cost of a picture can be reduced to 4 cents, or even lower, and the efficiency is higher. For example, with the help of NVIDIA instant-ngp and tiny-cuda-nn, the speed of Netease Yaotai neural implicit surface modeling has been optimized from 10 hours at the beginning to 10 to 20 minutes, compared with traditional MAYA manual modeling Efficiency increased by a hundred times.
Combining these characteristics, the "Intelligent Relativity Theory" believes that even though the current AIGC is booming, the metaverse is losing its popularity in the past, but AIGC is not here to compete with the metaverse or even take away its "job". On the contrary, there is a positive linear relationship between the two, and the maturity of generative AI technology will bring breakthrough opportunities for the Metaverse.
**Is the metaverse a "true collapse" or a "false flameout"? **
AIGC will play an important role in the construction of the metaverse in the future, but it is undeniable that the metaverse is now entering a "labor period", which is inseparable from the emergence and development of AIGC.
An obvious practical problem is that in the two high-intensity arenas of Metaverse and AIGC, there are no companies that can enter the arena at the same time with "rich and powerful".
If you want to run through a model with more than 10 billion parameters, you must at least achieve the level of "kcal/month". Based on the average price of 50,000 yuan for a GPU, 1,000 GPUs mean a monthly computing power of 50 million cost.
According to industry estimates, GPT-3 involves 175 billion parameters, and the training cost is about 12 million US dollars. According to the report of Guosheng Securities, the cost of GPT-3 training is about 1.4 million US dollars, and each training task is expensive.
AIGC’s cost input still has clear accounts to calculate, but it is difficult to see the end of the cost in the metaverse that “can accommodate the future”.
In particular, when the macro-economy is weak and the industry’s “main theme” is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, most companies will make the most cost-effective choice between the “relatively distant” Metaverse and the “close enough” AIGC.
Moreover, in addition to the higher predictability of cost-effective AIGC, in terms of returns, the domestic metaverse has not yet achieved large-scale commercialization, and it is difficult to bring returns in the short term, but AIGC already has a predictable commercialization link. **
Jiang Guowen, a consultant to Huawei's Blue Army, also said: "Currently, the development of Metaverse has not crossed the rift, and it is expected to enter the early stage of business commercialization in 10 years."
In contrast, the generative AI technology represented by ChatGPT can actually improve the productivity of users in the fields of search and content tools, and can also bring a certain amount of income. Since Baidu launched Wenxin Yiyan internal testing on March 16, 150,000 companies have applied for Wenxin Yiyan internal testing, and more than 300 ecological partners have achieved test results in more than 400 specific scenarios.
Comparing the two, it is not difficult to understand why more companies are willing to invest resources in AIGC instead of Metaverse.
**The emergence of AIGC has indeed "inactively" squeezed a part of the "living space" of the Metaverse. From a long-term perspective, the Metaverse still has a high level of imagination. **
**On the one hand, although some Internet companies are "retreating", there are many local governments in China that still insist on launching a new layout in the metaverse field. **
For example, the Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology recently released the major application scenario requirements of the Metaverse in Suzhou City in 2023, involving 30 demand scenarios in 7 major fields, and began to solicit solutions from the society; Henan Province issued the "2023 Henan Province Digital Transformation Strategic Work Plan" 》, to support Zhengzhou City in striving to create a pilot zone for the innovation and application of the National Metaverse.
Up to now, nearly 40 provinces, municipalities and regions in China have released the Metaverse industry development planning documents. In addition, more than 10 regions have established Metaverse-related industry funds with a total fund size of nearly 30 billion yuan. UBS (UBS) last Moon added Metaverse to its list of long-term investments.
**The "retirement" of enterprises is mostly considered from the actual economic level, but the "advancement" of the government represents that the industry is the future direction. The potential and importance of the metaverse industry is self-evident. **
On the other hand, according to Gartner's technology maturity curve, the development of metaverse technology is also in line with the overall trend.
In March 2021, taking advantage of the opportunity of Roblox's listing, the concept of metaverse exploded, causing the industry to overheat, and then began to experience coldness this year. **When the popularity of the metaverse falls to a relatively bottom position, the bubble will run out, and it will gradually start to climb from the bottom, and the development of the industry will be more rational and healthy. **
For example, the Gulangyu Metaverse project of China Mobile Migu provides users with digital life experiences such as cultural tourism, interactive entertainment, consumer shopping, etc., and creates the "First Island of Metaverse" with independent control, free exploration, instant interaction, and real-time online ; As the virtual technology support for the 2023 Online Spring Festival Gala, Netease Yaotai also successfully created the first Metaverse venue for the Online Spring Festival Gala for CCTV, and constructively equipped with smart face pinching, free dressing and a variety of interesting interactive gameplay, providing audiences with Bringing a subversive evening party experience combining reality and reality.
According to a global development research report released by Meta, by 2031, the development and popularization of metaverse industries will contribute 3.01 trillion US dollars to the global economy. And those real investors in the metaverse after the bubble is skimmed must be the biggest contributors to the contribution and will also benefit from it.
All in all, AIGC, as a new content production method, and the Metaverse, which is a new social form, currently seem to be in a "competitive" relationship one after another, but in fact it is a complementary "symbiotic" relationship. The maturity of AIGC will bring breakthrough opportunities to Metaverse; and the sound development of Metaverse will provide unlimited scenarios for the implementation of AIGC.
Although due to the high market expectations and hype in the early stage, the Metaverse, which is still in the concept and prototype stage, has some stamina, but perhaps as Liu Bai, the person in charge of Netease Yaotai, once said: "Metaverse is not cold, but has become more Benign or rational, the metaverse must still be a very important development direction in the future.”
On the day when the tide recedes, the valuation of metaverse companies may gradually return.