![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the crypto market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-46543f0b27-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-0e03749d3d-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-debac81042-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-529cf461b8-dd1a6f-7649e1)
Yesterday ushered in the release of intensive economic data, and the data results were hotter than the summer weather; German factory orders data opened strongly, with a month-on-month increase of 6.4%, much higher than the expected 1.2%, but it was the ADP data that really made the market carnival , employment growth came in at an incredible 497k, against expectations of just 225k (services +373k, manufacturing -420k), and weekly jobless claims held steady (248k), while Challenger Business layoffs fell to the lowest level since last October, despite a slightly flatter JOLTS data, with the job openings-to-unemployed ratio falling to its lowest level since October 2021 (1.6 times), in line with a rebound in resignations (more voluntary Resignations) balanced each other out,** though the performance of the ISM services index more than made up for any disappointment, with the headline index as well as the new orders (55.5 vs 52.9) and employment (53.1 vs 49.2) items beating expectations. **
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-ae6c643642-dd1a6f-7649e1)
**Bond markets reacted accordingly, with US 10-year yields recouping all SVB-related losses to settle above 4%, while 2-year yields closed back above 5%, with rate cuts ahead of June 2024 Expectations were all removed (terminal rate around 5.45%); across the Atlantic, the BoE Bailey didn't offer much rebuttal to the market's audacity to price in a terminal rate of 6.5% (!), leaving the UK 10y Treasury yields also rallied past Liz Truss' mini-budget-era highs. **
The trading volume reported by the brokerage is about 180% of the normal level, and the actual capital activities to reduce the duration risk and sell the short-term long position are very active. In addition, to make matters worse, Dallas Fed Logan came out and said that the interest rate hike in June What should have been "entirely appropriate" was that the Fed would need to adopt tighter policy to achieve its 2% inflation target, and she remained skeptical about the so-called lagged effect of rate hikes.
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-6501752857-dd1a6f-7649e1)
Due to the outbreak of ADP data, today's market expectations for non-agricultural data have undoubtedly increased. However, Goldman Sachs warned that due to seasonal reasons, the June data is often limited in terms of employment growth, so high expectations may bring disappointment. In equities, all sectors of the SPX index fell yesterday on concerns that yields are back on a persistently rising axis, and that exposure among institutional money managers is near record highs, according to survey data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Level ****, ** If there is an unexpected sell-off in the market in the third quarter, the current market layout will be difficult to deal with.
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-9b1e8f443c-dd1a6f-7649e1)
**In terms of cryptocurrencies, prices have corrected as gold prices have fallen and yields have moved higher, although BTC's correlation with the overall stock market has returned to almost zero. **In addition, the quarterly spot trading volume of Bitcoin has dropped to the lowest level since 2020. In the case of low liquidity, it is expected that the price trend will continue to fluctuate, and there may be some more violent fluctuations. This situation may continue Until the mainstream participation is further confirmed, such as the successful application of ETF.
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the crypto market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-8003a1544a-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-cac89de96d-dd1a6f-7649e1)
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SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the crypto market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-46543f0b27-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-0e03749d3d-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-debac81042-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-529cf461b8-dd1a6f-7649e1)
Yesterday ushered in the release of intensive economic data, and the data results were hotter than the summer weather; German factory orders data opened strongly, with a month-on-month increase of 6.4%, much higher than the expected 1.2%, but it was the ADP data that really made the market carnival , employment growth came in at an incredible 497k, against expectations of just 225k (services +373k, manufacturing -420k), and weekly jobless claims held steady (248k), while Challenger Business layoffs fell to the lowest level since last October, despite a slightly flatter JOLTS data, with the job openings-to-unemployed ratio falling to its lowest level since October 2021 (1.6 times), in line with a rebound in resignations (more voluntary Resignations) balanced each other out,** though the performance of the ISM services index more than made up for any disappointment, with the headline index as well as the new orders (55.5 vs 52.9) and employment (53.1 vs 49.2) items beating expectations. **
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-ae6c643642-dd1a6f-7649e1)
**Bond markets reacted accordingly, with US 10-year yields recouping all SVB-related losses to settle above 4%, while 2-year yields closed back above 5%, with rate cuts ahead of June 2024 Expectations were all removed (terminal rate around 5.45%); across the Atlantic, the BoE Bailey didn't offer much rebuttal to the market's audacity to price in a terminal rate of 6.5% (!), leaving the UK 10y Treasury yields also rallied past Liz Truss' mini-budget-era highs. **
The trading volume reported by the brokerage is about 180% of the normal level, and the actual capital activities to reduce the duration risk and sell the short-term long position are very active. In addition, to make matters worse, Dallas Fed Logan came out and said that the interest rate hike in June What should have been "entirely appropriate" was that the Fed would need to adopt tighter policy to achieve its 2% inflation target, and she remained skeptical about the so-called lagged effect of rate hikes.
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-6501752857-dd1a6f-7649e1)
Due to the outbreak of ADP data, today's market expectations for non-agricultural data have undoubtedly increased. However, Goldman Sachs warned that due to seasonal reasons, the June data is often limited in terms of employment growth, so high expectations may bring disappointment. In equities, all sectors of the SPX index fell yesterday on concerns that yields are back on a persistently rising axis, and that exposure among institutional money managers is near record highs, according to survey data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Level ****, ** If there is an unexpected sell-off in the market in the third quarter, the current market layout will be difficult to deal with.
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-9b1e8f443c-dd1a6f-7649e1)
**In terms of cryptocurrencies, prices have corrected as gold prices have fallen and yields have moved higher, although BTC's correlation with the overall stock market has returned to almost zero. **In addition, the quarterly spot trading volume of Bitcoin has dropped to the lowest level since 2020. In the case of low liquidity, it is expected that the price trend will continue to fluctuate, and there may be some more violent fluctuations. This situation may continue Until the mainstream participation is further confirmed, such as the successful application of ETF.
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the crypto market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-8003a1544a-dd1a6f-7649e1)
![SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230707): The U.S. economic rebound exceeded expectations, and the encryption market decoupled from the Nasdaq] (https://img-cdn.gateio.im/resized-social/moments-7f230462a9-cac89de96d-dd1a6f-7649e1)