Shenyu: The three most noteworthy things in the second half of 2023

Now the entire cryptocurrency industry is still in a state of re-finding narrative logic. However, there are still several major events in the industry that deserve attention. As for what the narrative logic of the cryptocurrency will eventually become, which applications can run, and what kind of scenarios will be implemented, we will be able to see everything very clearly in the second quarter of next year. These are the results of trial and error in the end, and everything is determined by the market.
First of all, Ethereum will have an upgrade in the second half of the year to improve performance; secondly, L2 will launch its mainnet in the next 6-12 months—with a high probability of 6 months—including Scroll, ZKS and a series of second-tier Networks are striving to be the first to gain a better first-mover advantage. Once Ethereum is upgraded, the performance problems that have plagued the entire blockchain industry in the past ten years may be gradually resolved, perhaps with a performance improvement of about 10 times, from a few hundred TPS now to about a thousand TPS, and in the future through hardware Acceleration and other methods can reach the order of 10,000 TPS, which will bring a wave of relatively large performance improvements. At that time, some high-daily active applications and some low-cost transactions will finally be able to run on the blockchain.
The second consensus is that the private keyless wallet based on MPC technology and the AA smart wallet on the chain may gradually form a unified standard with the launch of L2, which will lead to large-scale promotion and application. In fact, the second-tier network originally gave users an AA wallet from day 1. This may become the default configuration for users in the future, which will greatly reduce the threshold for users.
Once the blockchain performance is initially solved and the user threshold is further lowered, there may be a large wave of application attempts and outbreaks, and a large influx of users. This is what we hope to see. I predict that the approximate time point should be after the second quarter of next year.
The third important issue is the application of traditional institutional ETFs. Since June this year, many traditional financial institutions have applied for cryptocurrency spot ETFs, and it seems that the possibility of passing is very high. A hard timeline is in Q1 next year, around the end of March, the SEC must answer whether to approve ETF. We expect that at the end of Q1 next year, we will see one or two ETFs with large-scale liquidity applied by traditional financial institutions go online, re-opening the compliant funding channels in North America.
(Data source: Shenyu)