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💰Total prize pool: 4,464 $ESPORTS
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Data on the chain: we are at the end of the interest rate, the plateau period before the interest rate cut
The past year has been a year of gradual rise and rise in interest rates, and a year of expected tightening. In an environment where cash is the most abundant asset. And when interest rates start to drop, global participants and investors will have to find some high returns from global stocks to gold to cryptocurrencies.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. The selling pressure that flowed into exchanges before is being gradually digested by the market, and the total amount of selling pressure is still not high in the long run;
2. Since May of this year, new chips have increased the most in four years; 3. The spot selling pressure has survived the period of high pressure.
The market sets the tone: In the long run, it may be time to take over and make a transition, and this process may be relatively long.
Without additional incentives, it needs to slowly return to a squeezed or unbalanced state internally, thereby driving market pricing.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. The status of giant whale deposits is currently relatively slow;
2. The net balance of BTC exchanges is hovering;
3. The willingness to hold currency has stagnated, and the short-term supply has relatively weakened;
4. The potential of spot buyers has been weak in the past month
Market tone: stagnant
The market has fallen into a consistent state of stagnation, and the supply of short-term liquidity is relatively weakened. It may be necessary to pay attention to uncertain risks in the near future.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The risk factor is in the dangerous area, and the risk has increased.
2. The new active addresses are at a relatively high level, and the market activity is good.
3. Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
4. The overall net position of the exchange showed an accumulation of outflows, and the selling pressure was low.
5. A large loss of global purchasing power, while the purchasing power of stablecoins rebounded slightly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 28500; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 32000.
7. The probability of not falling below 24000~26000 in the short term is 78%;
8. The probability that the price will not rise above 32000~34000 in the short term is 67%.
Market tone: The overall short-term market sentiment is neutral. It may continue to oscillate, and it will not be too far away from large fluctuations.
Strategy suggestion: maintain positions and dynamically hedge.
(Data source: WTR Research Institute)