LTC halving does not rise but falls, how will BTC halve behave? Will the cow still come?

At 23:00 on August 2, the block height of Litecoin (LTC), once dubbed "Bitcoin and Litesilver", reached 2,520,000. The block reward was officially halved, and the mining reward was reduced from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC.

However, the market has poured cold water on it, and the price of LTC has been falling all the way, falling by 7% in 24 hours.

Although a suitable explanation can be given, "all the good is bad", and everyone will sell after the official halving, ending the profit, but the crux of the problem is that LTC did not rise much before the halving, and more just followed the market Synchronous fluctuations, so most people are not "selling for profit" but "helpless to cut meat".

Neither the digital silver nor the halving narrative has been able to stimulate the price of LTC. Of course, everyone is more concerned about whether there is still a chance for Bitcoin to halve next year?

In everyone's opinion, the halving of Bitcoin is undoubtedly a deterministic event that directly leads to price increases, but "correlation" does not mean "causality".

Judging from the timing of Bitcoin halving, U.S. stocks are also rising almost simultaneously. It is impossible to say that Bitcoin halving causes U.S. stocks to rise, or it can be reinterpreted as "the rise of U.S. stocks leads to the rise of Bitcoin."

The price depends on supply and demand at the same time. After Bitcoin halving three times, the impact of Bitcoin halving on supply becomes smaller and smaller. After Bitcoin halving in 2024, the reward for a single block of Bitcoin will be from 6.25 becomes 3.125.

Then, what really determines the price of Bitcoin will be demand, that is, whether there will be new inflows of external funds.

Looking back at the bitcoin bull market that started after the halving in 2020, the reason you may be connected to is not the halving of bitcoin, but the "epidemic" and "the Fed's big release". Under the extremely loose flow, US stocks soared, and a large number of The funds entered the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and Grayscale continued to buy Bitcoin. After that, Tesla also bought Bitcoin, driving the entire market into a frenzy.

Therefore, where the "money" comes from is the key to really determining whether the crypto bull market is or not.

Does that mean that the event of Bitcoin halving is not important, nor is it that Bitcoin halving still has a strong "narrative" and "anticipatory" value.

In the encryption market where there is almost no fundamentals, price rises and falls are often driven by "narratives" and "good expectations". Facts have proved that narrative value is often effective.

When everyone is willing to believe that "Bitcoin halving" will bring about a bull market, then everyone will rush to buy, which will really bring about a bull market.

This is what Soros called "reflexivity".

The same is true for the stock market, which is also a voting machine. Because in the short term, it is the number of people who buy the stock that ultimately determines the rise or fall of the stock, not the performance of the company itself. The more people buy, the more the stock will rise. Therefore, when buying stocks, what most people think about is whether others will also think that this stock is good, and will they also buy this stock.

The financial market is the result of the game of consciousness of all people. I will think what others think, and others will also think what I will think.

Under reflexivity, asset prices will never be equal to the value itself, and most of them are in a state of inflated high. In the process of rising, in turn, people will feel that this stock is more powerful, and the more they will continue to buy.

This cycle goes on and on until the bubble bursts, and so does the falling process, which determines that the price will always be in a pendulum movement around the value, from one extreme to the other.

Therefore, starting from the overall situation of the industry, let most people believe that "Bitcoin halving" will bring about a bull market, and perhaps there will be a real bull market.

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