2023.9.9 China’s “Soros” moment


Fundamentals
On July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system. On that day, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar plummeted by as much as 17%.
In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend the ringgit, and the Singapore dollar was also affected. Although Indonesia was the last country to be "infected", it was the most severely affected.
In October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, the international financial center. Taiwan suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar, devaluing it by 3.46% in one day, increasing pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and the Hong Kong stock market.
In mid-November, a financial crisis also broke out in South Korea in East Asia.
In early 1998, Indonesia’s financial crisis re-emerged
In early August 1998, when the U.S. stock market was in turmoil and the Japanese yen exchange rate continued to fall, international speculators launched a new round of attack on Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index fell all the way to more than 6,600 points.
On August 17, 1998, it was announced that the floating range of the ruble exchange rate against the US dollar would be expanded to 60 to 951 within the year, and that it would postpone the repayment of foreign debt and suspend the trading of government bonds. On September 2, the ruble devalued by 70%.
From yesterday to now, the RMB in the offshore market is still hitting the previous high of 7.37, with the highest reaching 7.368. Although the previous high of 7.37484 does not mean anything, if it breaks the previous high, the RMB will only have the pressure level of 8. In 2005, 17 years of efforts in exchange reform came to nothing.
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