The "eight-day window" opens tomorrow, and the spot bitcoin ETF will be approved within the year?

Author: BitpushNews Mary Liu

The speculation around spot bitcoin ETFs has added fuel to the fire.

Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas said today that starting tomorrow (November 9), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will have a short window of time during which 12 pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications can be approved.

This approval includes the conversion of BlackRock's BlackRock iShares Spot Bitcoin ETF and Grayscale's Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Eight-day window

The analyst's reasoning: When the SEC extended the deadline for pending ETF applications, it chose November 8 as the last day to refute the comments. It's also possible that the SEC will approve several applications between now and Nov. 17, but to be fair, all funds must start trading on the same day.

"The SEC issued delay orders to BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity and Valkyrie at the same time," Seyffart wrote on the X platform. If the agency wishes to allow all 12 application offerings to launch at the same time – as we believe – this time period is the first available window since the Grayscale court victory was confirmed. ”

! The "eight-day window" opens tomorrow, and the spot bitcoin ETF will be approved within the year?

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will allow investors to gain exposure to BTC investments to buy Bitcoin-backed shares purchased by issuers without having to own and manage the asset themselves.

Balchunas also noted that the SEC's release of educational short videos on Platform X may further strengthen hopes for early approval. The committee released similar material shortly before approving the Bitcoin futures ETF issued by ProShares in October 2021.

! The "eight-day window" opens tomorrow, and the spot bitcoin ETF will be approved within the year?

Seyffart and Balchunas added that even if it is not approved this month, "we still believe there is a 90% chance of approval on January 10".

However, it can take several months for spot Bitcoin ETFs to become listed for trading. Analyst Seyffart noted that even if the SEC approves a change in the rules that allow ETF trading (Filing 194-b), it is a completely two-step step from approving the fund's registration statement (Filing S1). Both documents need to be approved before the Bitcoin ETF can start trading.

U.S. lawyer Scott Johnsson explained on Platform X that assuming approval is obtained this week, it could take at least a month (and possibly months) before any ETF actually launches. Many applicants' S-1 documents are still under review, and there is no real hard deadline for the process. It can take weeks or even months between approval and launch.

However, the rally in BTC has already proved that investors are optimistic about it, with BTC rising by more than 20% in October, and the news rose to $36,000 in the short term.

Grayscale has started negotiations with the SEC

Grayscale has been in contact with the SEC's trading and markets department and the company's finance department after the court ruled that the SEC must re-examine the GBTC conversion application, CoinDesk reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has said that the company's finance department is responsible for providing feedback, while the trading and markets department looks at the documents, and both departments play an important role in the ETF approval process.

Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein said his company has not received any news from the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF.

In an interview with Coindesk, Craig Salm, chief legal officer at Grayscale, said, "At the moment we are just focused on engaging constructively with the trading and markets departments, and there are still some things that need to be addressed. He also noted that other applicants for Bitcoin ETFs, including financial giants BlackRock and Fidelity, appear to have made progress in the SEC's negotiations with them. Overall, it was a good engagement, and it's just a matter of time, not if. ”

It's just a matter of time

Spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract between $50 billion and $100 billion in inflows over the next five years, which could lead to a significant shift in the asset's market dynamics, analysts said. According to crypto asset manager CoinShares, crypto funds have attracted $767 million worth of deposits in the last six weeks alone.

Of all the applicants, investors are most excited about the prospect of approval for BlackRock, a leading global financial company with approximately $8.5 trillion in assets under management. Steven Schoenfield, former managing director of BlackRock and current CEO of MarketVector Indexes, predicts that BlackRock's approval could bring in $200 billion in revenue for Bitcoin and push the BTC price to $330,000.

No matter how tortuous the process is, it's only a matter of time before a Bitcoin ETF lands on Wall Street, according to several industry insiders. JPMorgan analysts said in a note earlier this week that spot bitcoin ETFs now look almost inevitable because "any rejection could trigger a lawsuit against the SEC, which could cause more legal trouble for the institution." ”