On March 22, the offshore/onshore USD/RMB exchange rate fluctuated significantly, causing heated discussions in the market, but on the whole, most non-US currencies performed weakly on the day, and the RMB exchange rate did not have unilateral expectations in the forward market. On a weekly basis, the loosening of market expectations for the monetary policy of central banks in some non-US economies may be one of the main reasons for the recent rebound in the US dollar. Domestically, since March, the moderate recovery of economic fundamentals has supported the RMB exchange rate, but it is difficult to drive a sharp rebound. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate may still be under pressure under the high level of the US dollar index, but considering the net inflow of financial accounts represented by the stock and bond markets, and the strength of the central bank's exchange rate stabilization policy, the probability of the exchange rate breaking through the previous high is not large.