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The Fed's promise to cut interest rates may make it more difficult to fulfill, although some Fed officials are trying to maintain the prospect of raising interest rates again, the central bank's main message is that its next move will be a rate cut. However, the more moderate the Fed's stance, the looser the financial environment will be, and the more difficult it will be for the Fed to cut interest rates. Once the rate cut plan is mentioned, bond yields will immediately decline, achieving an effective rate cut - when in fact the Fed does not want to cut interest rates in the next 3 to 6 months. Tonight, the US's core PCE price index for April will be released, providing a reference for the expectation of rate cuts!
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Yesterday, Bitcoin fluctuated around the range in the morning, with the lowest point around 67100, until the bulls regained lost ground in the evening, with the highest price around 69500. However, it did not stabilize. There was a deep pullback in the early morning, dropping to around 68000, and it is currently running at around 68300! From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart is running above the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Over the past week, Bitcoin has been oscillating back and forth in the range of 67000-69500. The daily chart has continuously tested the 67500-67000 area without breaking, and the pressure above 69500 has also been touched multiple times but failed to break through. Looking at the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are very strange, with a weird shape contracting downward, making it difficult for me to understand for a moment whether it should go long or short. Looking at the KDJ trend, it is indeed showing an upward trend, while the MACD is showing no strength. Both long and short sides lack energy, and overall, it is still running within the range-bound structure. In fact, whether it's short or long, there are opportunities in the short term, and the short-term layout revolves around the high short and low long within the box range.
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Ethereum once again emerged from a weak state, breaking through the 3720 level twice yesterday and barely holding the 3700 support level. The rebound was relatively weak in terms of strength, and the overnight release of favorable unemployment data linked Bitcoin to test the 3825 resistance level before falling back near 3720. Currently, it is undergoing a weak correction near 3740. The attempt to stabilize after a midnight surge failed, followed by a downward trend. Looking at the daily chart, the channel is undergoing consolidation, with the price rebounding after reaching a high. Currently, the oscillation continues to trend lower, and the channel is showing a downward opening. There is no sign of the shorts turning long, with the moving average turning downward and facing resistance in the short term. The shorts are suppressing the market, so in the short-term, we can consider participating in high short positions.