With the explosive rise in GOAT’s market value, the AI sector, which had been dormant for half a year, was finally ignited by a goat. AI, hovering between decentralized computing power and decentralized data, suddenly became popular after the anticipation of a meme supercycle, flooding the market with various AI-themed memes.

This new token, which has surprised even veteran meme players with its rapid growth, unexpectedly combined the AI and meme sectors, creating a more alluring and imaginative AI meme space. The narrative of AI issuing its own tokens, which had never been attempted before, appears so coherent and native against the backdrop of a market cap in the tens of millions.

The story of GOAT is worth reviewing in detail. Through this process, we can learn about the significant information gaps in the current crypto market, the concerns surrounding AI memes, and the future speculation directions and logic for the sector.

a16z effect

Truth Terminal (@truth_terminal) launched on June 17, 2024. Its initial breakout occurred when Marc Andreessen, co-founder of a16z, donated $50,000 worth of Bitcoin to it.

Related reading: “How This AI Robot Made Silicon Valley’s Top Investor Shell Out $50,000 in Bitcoin?“

This is an AI model fine-tuned based on the llama3-70b-base model. All posts it publishes on X are generated by itself and selectively released after review by its developers. After Andreessen’s donation to Truth Terminal on July 10, the platform hinted that it would issue its own token and use the funds raised to establish a Discord community.

On October 11, Truth Terminal created its own meme, “Goatseus Maximus,” on Twitter, and shortly after, a meme token named GOAT appeared on pump.fun. Following Truth Terminal’s endorsement, the token price skyrocketed, increasing over 200 times within half a day, with its market cap reaching as high as $20 million.

In the context of the PVP model on the PUMP platform, most of the so-called “golden dogs” that have “run out” were unable to maintain a high market value that day. The initial explosion of GOAT was primarily due to the notoriety of a16z and Marc, as many were “riding the wave” of the AI bot concept that a16z had invested in. Consequently, after GOAT reached a market cap of $20 million, it encountered its first peak and, like many semi-golden dogs on Solana, the price quickly fell back to around $6 million on the same day.

Clearly, expectations for GOAT were still within the PVP logic, without considering the appealing concept and imaginative potential of AI issuing its own tokens. For example, a smart money address starting with 3DKf (3DKfZz4iHgu42LGu3ttQxqz6u4m5z9ptuar8pBsRqkKC) gradually took profits after gaining from GOAT, while the market began to seek out another narrative.

Source: Dexscreener

Interestingly, the GOAT case seems to illustrate the ultra-long time chain for value consensus formation in the crypto market. In an industry where information flows extremely quickly, the space for “information asymmetry arbitrage” is not as small as many might imagine.

From October 12 to October 13, the discussion around GOAT on Twitter was quite active; however, its price did not reflect this engagement and remained in a significantly undervalued range.

Savior Moonshot: Turning “Traffic Riding” into an AI + Crypto “Perfect Answer”

GOAT broke through the PVP logic, becoming a turning point for the PVE concept, thanks to the boost from Moonshot.

After Moodeng, Moonshot began to be seen in the crypto industry as the “Upbit of the meme world,” with many meme tokens launched after being listed on Moonshot experiencing significant price increases in a short period. Moonshot is an app on the App Store that allows users to buy and sell memecoins directly using fiat currency, aimed at enabling users to purchase meme tokens with fiat money. Many insiders believe this essentially opens the liquidity valve for the meme market. GOAT became another major beneficiary of Moonshot following Moodeng.

Related reading: “Moonshot: Can You Buy Memecoins with Fiat Currency?“

On October 13, GOAT’s price was at a low of $12 million. At 8:41 AM, Moonshot’s official Twitter announced the listing of GOAT.

GOAT’s price rapidly surged, breaking through the previous high of $20 million in total market value in less than half an hour, and within two days, it surpassed the $100 million mark. This increase brought greater visibility and influence, as the narrative surrounding AI memes gained recognition from a broader audience. It wasn’t just KOLs (“call-out kings”) participating; various top-tier VCs and advisors related to Moonshot also took notice.

Zhu Su, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, announced on social media that he had gone long on GOAT, with an average entry price of $0.33976. Wintermute became the third-largest holder of GOAT, owning 1% of the total supply. Chris Burniske, a partner at Placeholder, stated on X that the emergence of GOAT signifies that both humans and machines are beginning to recognize the powerful potential of blockchain technology. Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of macro research firm Real Vision, replied, “Exactly, this showcases the power of autonomous AI in the future.”

Those smart money investors who had previously taken profits are now re-entering the market, including the smart money address mentioned earlier. A whale that sold most of its holdings at an average price of $0.0075 has repurchased its shares at $0.03.

Source: Dexscreener

After breaking the $100 million mark, GOAT’s momentum became unstoppable, rapidly reaching new highs and surpassing the $200 million threshold within just two days. The consensus around PVE and AI memes began to spread beyond the immediate community, forming a strong consensus within the crypto industry.

In the continuously PVP environment of the Pump platform, it was only at this point that we realized that GOAT, assisted by Truth Terminal in its issuance, was not just PVP but a completely new narrative: the combination of AI and memes. The two concepts of AI and memes fit together perfectly. As Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal, stated, AI conversing with each other creates ideal conditions for meme viral spread.

Compared to GOAT, previous combinations of AI and crypto seemed somewhat awkward because they essentially involved VC coins issued by project teams. However, “tokens issued by AI” have turned many KOLs and even VCs into believers. This not only elevates the integration with AI but is also very crypto-native in concept, while avoiding the regulatory risks typically associated with token issuance, as these are coins issued by AI.

Amidst a collective FOMO, GOAT’s market cap soared, reaching a high of $600 million on October 20. Influencers like Arthur Hayes even proclaimed that GOAT would reach a market cap of $1 billion.

One typo ends it all: the dark forest of AI memes.

However, GOAT doesn’t seem to be the perfect answer for AI + crypto. On October 20, Truth Terminal made a typo in a tweet, misspelling “groups” as “grouops,” which caused GOAT’s market cap to quickly plummet from $27 million to $14.4 million.

The typo incident involving Truth Terminal sparked discussions about whether it is operated by real people. Some believe that the hype surrounding the AI meme narrative is a complete conspiracy, claiming there is no such thing as a Truth Terminal bot, and that a conspiratorial group is behind its operation. People argue that AI should not make spelling errors, leading to a wave of anti-AI sentiment.

Later, upon closer examination of the Truth Terminal model itself, it was found that the AI model, fine-tuned from the llama3-70b-base, has less than a 0.1% probability of making spelling mistakes. Andy Ayrey, the founder of the Truth Terminal model, also stated that he holds 1.25 million GOAT tokens, some of which have been airdropped to friends and AI researchers, but he himself has not conducted any trades. The wallet for truth_terminal is self-managed and will be transferred to a legal entity (like a trust) designed to meet its needs. Until a transparent governance process is in place, there will be no adjustments to its token holdings; all tweets from Truth Terminal are created by the AI itself, and no messages have been injected into its prompts.

At the same time, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated on social media that the drop in GOAT’s price presented a good buying opportunity for him, as he had already purchased GOAT. Eugene indicated that GOAT and GNON will be key positions for future long-term trends, adding, “If I’m wrong, I’ll be your exit liquidity.”

GOAT’s price was also influenced by the remarks from Eugene and the founder of Truth Terminal, with GOAT rebounding over 100% at its peak and currently maintaining an increase of 94.83%.

Even though GOAT’s price has returned to levels prior to the typo incident, there are still concerns among investors, as it is merely a “semi-AI token.” Andy Ayrey, the founder of Truth Terminal, stated that Truth Terminal is not directly responsible for launching the GOAT token; it only participated in its promotion and is focused on “researching the tail risks of meme contagion and the unsupervised, infinite creativity generated in the era of large language models.”

At this point, it remains uncertain whether this narrative can continue to unfold. Many whales have begun to reduce their holdings in GOAT to lock in profits. In the “Wet Market” of AI meme culture, where viruses can proliferate wildly, the future trajectory of GOAT will need to be tested by the market.

Currently, it appears that the existing AI meme still relies on conspiratorial groups. In this case, it resembles more of a “semi-AI meme.” Truth Terminal did not participate in the token’s issuance; it merely recognized and promoted the token. It is undeniable that AI memes have a high degree of appeal in their narratives and significant imaginative potential in their gameplay. However, the market’s speculative expectations extend beyond just a16z and AI meme trading signals.

The market is waiting for a token that is entirely deployed by AI or issued autonomously on Pump, representing a completely fair “full AI meme” with no insider trading, no market manipulation, and all tokens distributed equitably, driven by market consensus to realize that future autonomous AI can have strong applications in blockchain.

The emergence of GOAT is just the beginning of AI meme speculation, opening a new direction. Many more AI memes will follow, but it is essential to guard against the “black forest” of conspiratorial groups while keeping an eye on innovative AI gameplay to seize the next alpha opportunity. Perhaps one day, a completely new AI meme will emerge, entirely deployed by AI itself.

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