On May 12, #BTC行情预测# , Bitcoin fell back to $103,000 after first reaching a high of $105,000. Analyst FilbFilb pointed out that "$100,000 is both a psychological barrier and a key technical resistance." Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization has surpassed $2 trillion, but this position needs to be converted into a support level to build momentum for a surge towards the historical high of $110,000.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is showing a "cup and handle" structure, with a target of $109,350, but in the short term, it may pull back to the support level of $96,300. On-chain data shows that 100,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges in the past three weeks, and long-term holders (LTH) are still accumulating, with limited selling pressure in the market.
Institutions such as BlackRock continue to inject funds through Bitcoin ETFs, with a scale reaching $125 billion. The Trump administration's "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" plan and the hoarding actions of countries like El Salvador further strengthen Bitcoin's "digital gold" attributes. If the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates in June (probability 91.7%), the loose environment may help push BTC to break the target of $120,000 to $150,000.
Beware of short-term black swans. Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine negotiations) and inflation data (CPI, PPI) may trigger volatility. If Bitcoin falls below $100,000, it may briefly dip to $96,300, but the on-chain indicator MVRV is close to 1.0, entering the value investment range.