BTC has been trading sideways at a high level for a week, and the altcoin market is performing differently. Given the current market sentiment, most people are hoping it will fall, as this would provide an opportunity to enter a position. However, logically speaking, since capital has put in so much effort to pump the price to around 110k, it is difficult for it to immediately drop back down in the short term. Instead, up and down fluctuations are more conducive to collecting long and short positions.

The MACD golden cross momentum at the weekly level has indeed influenced the market's optimistic sentiment. From on-chain data, the inflow of BTC ETF continues to increase, and there is a possibility of continuing to hit new highs in the short term. Judging from the BTC 1-hour and 4-hour candle chart trends, there is still about a 3.8% distance from the high point of 111963. It is likely that a rapid surge will occur in the short term, reaching a new high before a pullback, and liquidating short positions around 112500-113000 should be a highly probable event within this week.

However, it is worth noting that on Friday, May 30, U.S. time, there will be a life and death situation for the long and short "105000" option line, and the BTC options worth $13.8 billion on major exchanges are about to expire, and the long and short sides are carrying out a bloody tug of war around the psychological threshold of about $10W, and every $1,000 in the current price fluctuates means the redistribution of hundreds of millions of dollars of wealth. This is also the reason why I judge that the market will hit new highs and then retrace sharply. At this sensitive moment, for ordinary players, staying away from the battlefield may be the best choice, after all, the fishtail market is very stormy, and if you are not careful, you will be trapped on the top of the mountain.

This morning I found that ETH has risen and is getting closer to 2800. This is a relatively good signal. Even if BTC directly hits 150,000 now, I believe no one would be surprised, as 80% of retail investors have slowly exited the BTC market. What everyone is concerned about is when altcoins will arrive and when the coins they hold will start to rise.

Based on past experience, it can be said quite frankly that if ETH does not rise in this round, then there is no need to think about an altcoin bull market. Although new public chains like SOL and SUI have emerged in this round, the application and significance of the ETH public chain in the entire crypto ecosystem are still the most representative in this bull market. If I have to choose one cryptocurrency to hold at this stage, with the requirement of being the most certain, ETH is my first choice.

In the past period of time, the price of ETH has indeed been greatly questioned, BTC has continued to break new highs since 24, while ETH has not broken the previous high, and has continued to fall sharply after entering 25 years, and the lowest has fallen to 1400, which will indeed be a big surprise, which also directly leads to many people in the market are no longer optimistic about it, thinking that it is garbage, if it is not garbage, then he should rise, he should break new highs, he should outperform BTC, and get rid of SOL.

After BTC successfully passed the ETF, the same script was played out exactly, with a fall instead of a rise, directly creating a bear market feeling. The internet has no memory. It is precisely because retail investors always define its value based on the current price that many have lost confidence in ETH, abandoning their tokens during several rounds of volatility. However, the value of ETH is clearly understood by Wall Street capital, and this is what they need: you throw, I catch; the more you throw, the more I catch.

Retail investors' emotions in the market are easily influenced by news. Today, ETH suddenly surged, and upon checking the news, it was reported that a small listed tech company in the beautiful country announced it would imitate MicroStrategy and establish a strategic reserve for ETH dollar-cost averaging, causing its stock price to soar. If a month later, ETH falls back below 2000 along with BTC's correction, do you believe the market will definitely spread news that a bear market has arrived and 800 is inevitable?

Warren Buffett once said, "Short-term prices may be underestimated, but ultimately prices will align with value." ETH has undergone 3 cycles of bull and bear markets, and the position of the second-tier dragon is not so easily replaced. From a technical perspective, each year's ecological upgrade of ETH significantly enhances the foundational technological applications of the crypto ecosystem. Based on the on-chain application development situation and real TVL data, to be honest, it's hard to find competitors of comparable scale, and that is where ETH's value lies.

Many retail investors, when choosing projects, particularly enjoy listening to stories and seeing project teams make grand promises, but they don't actually research the authenticity of these messages. It's like how uncles and aunts love to hear about mobile mining, which can supposedly lead to endless wealth, but they lack the ability to understand the groundbreaking significance behind the code.

The era when retail investors were easily fooled is over; it's no longer possible to make money just by a random whitepaper. In the future secondary market of the cryptocurrency world, coins with real application value will increasingly be sought after, but it cannot be denied that the profits that can be obtained in the secondary market will inevitably decrease. A return of 1-2 times is already excellent, while 10 times may have become a myth.

You might scoff at the idea of playing with cryptocurrencies just to earn 1-2 times your investment, but the fact is that this is indeed the case. If you don't consider the safety of your principal, and want to find a big altcoin, you can only dive in; either put in hard work in the primary market or make some swings in the secondary market. Relying solely on technical skills to quickly get rich off a single coin has a very low probability now.

Some old investors are aware that the bull market is still ongoing, but the trend will accelerate increasingly in the coming period, creating a feeling of you finish your performance and I take the stage. The accelerating trend also means that the rotation of sectors will be faster, and the challenges we face will increase day by day. This feeling is very familiar, and it is also very exciting, as it tests your vision and composure.

When retail investors face losses, they sometimes choose to lie flat and indulge in self-comfort in an A Q-style, because everyone is experiencing a low point, so it seems justifiable that I have incurred losses. However, if in the next six months, the market starts to differentiate, trends accelerate, and various sectors of coins rise one after another, the coins you hold may increase in value, but if the increase is not substantial enough to make you a lot of money, or even unable to turn your losses into profits, then looking back at the sharp rise of other valuable coins in the market, you might feel worse than losing money.

At that time, you will be more anxious, worried about gains and losses, and concerned whether the cryptocurrency you hold will peak early and directly turn into a bear market.
It's difficult to make decisions about whether to sell or not. No matter how you operate, it feels like it's wrong. If I sell, I'm afraid the price will pump, and I'll miss out on further gains. If I don't sell, I'm worried that I'm close to breaking even, but if the market corrects, I could suffer significant losses. Sometimes human nature is very real; we always change our decisions based on market fluctuations. Before the loss, we just hope to break even; after breaking even, we think about making a little profit and exiting. After making a little profit, we start to think about making more. This should be the psychological portrayal of 80% of players.

I have also gone through this stage, and the biggest reason for this psychological struggle is that you don't understand the altcoin you hold well enough. You are unclear about the background and attributes of this coin, and the information you receive is all hearsay. When it rises, you feel very lucky, and when it falls, you feel like you trusted the wrong person. But how can there be a rise without a fall? The fluctuation of prices is nothing more than the process of the main force deceiving and dumping chips. Unless you are very lucky to buy at the lowest point, when is there a time when you don't experience psychological struggle?

It should be getting closer to the conclusion now. Think more about the portfolio in your hands; is it a treasure or just grass? Even if it's just grass, there is still a chance to turn back. Even if the final outcome tells you that what you hold is grass, there's no need to be afraid of making mistakes. The most important thing for adults in investing is to have confidence. With experience comes wisdom; after understanding and reflecting on it, you can get back on track and continue to play.

The most fearful thing is that once bitten by a snake, one is afraid of the well rope for ten years. If you are completely disappointed and leave, you will completely miss a relatively easy money-making circle and era. #Gate 荣获 “2025 年度最佳加密货币交易所”大奖# #比特币2025大会开启#