After the U.S. election, can BTC reach 100,000? Help you organize the opinions of 6 financial experts!

BTC breaks through 70,000 US dollars, market expects new high

As October comes to a close, BTC has finally shown the long-awaited 'Uptober' momentum in the market. Starting from the low point below $60,000 on October 10th, BTC has rebounded all the way to a stable level near $68,000 and has surged past $72,000 in the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, BTC has risen by 8.61% in the past 30 days and a staggering 65.67% since the beginning of 2024, with the current price at $72,428.

However, BTC has not yet retested the historical high set in March, exceeding $73,000. The market is concerned about whether BTC can reach a new high amidst the expected high volatility before and after the US presidential election. Many investors follow the upcoming election, trying to predict its impact on BTC and the overall market.

Source: TradingView BTC finally showed the long-awaited 'Uptober' momentum in late October.

BTC hits 100,000 US dollars? Technical Analysis and Future Prospects

Amid market high anticipation of BTC breaking $100,000, Cryptocurrency analyst Alan Santana stated that while BTC surpassing $70,000 is a highly bullish move, further confirmation is needed to establish a stable rise trend that could drive the price to $100,000. He emphasized that BTC needs to maintain this level above before the end of the week to validate the 'higher point' unseen in the market for three months. Santana warned that if it fails to sustain above $70,000, a 'Bull Market Trap' may occur, and suggested waiting for the weekly and monthly lines to close above the $70,000 to $71,000 range as a stronger confirmation signal.

Image source: Alan Santana Santana warns that if it cannot stay above $70,000, there may be a 'Bull Market Trap'.

Additionally, Santana pointed out that despite the recent strong upward momentum, the volume is still relatively low, which is usually associated with a weaker trend. He mentioned that the resistance levels at 72,000 and 74,000 US dollars may also pose a challenge to the upward movement of Bitcoin. Overall, he believes that without decisive technical support, the path to $100,000 for BTC is far from guaranteed.

On the other hand, cryptocurrency trading expert Ali Martinez pointed out in a social media post on October 29 that if BTC can break through and stay above $70,500, the next target will be $84,200. This forecast is based on the market value and realized value (MVRV) pricing band of BTC, which evaluates the asset's market cap relative to its last movement in value.

Image source: Ali Martinez Ali Martinez believes that if BTC can break through $70,500, the next target will be $84,200.

Financial experts have different opinions, and the election results may be critical.

So, is there really a chance for the market to rise to 100,000? The foreign media 'Finbold' has compiled the market performance after several past US elections, as shown in the following table: long wick candle.

BTC price movements in response to elections: In 2012, there were no significant price changes related to the elections. In 2016, it rose 3.8%+3.8% after Trump's victory. In 2020, it experienced a substantial increase of +46% due to global economic instability and wider adoption after the election day.

However, the discussion about BTC in this year's US election is completely different from the past. So what will be the trend of BTC in November and beyond? This has also sparked discussion in the market, and many financial experts have shared their insights. Here we have summarized them as follows:

Joy Wallet CEO Ben Sporn is optimistic about the recent performance of BTC, emphasizing the possibility of a bullish flag pattern breakout during the 2024 election period. He pointed out that next year's BTC Halving is still driving market optimism, and both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have expressed open attitudes towards cryptocurrency. Sporn predicts that if BTC can break through the key resistance level around November 5th, the price may rise to $80,000.

Jordan Figueredo, marketing consultant for Pelicoin, believes that whoever wins the 2024 US presidential election may be beneficial to BTC. He mentioned that if Trump wins, BTC may experience a significant increase like in 2016. If Harris wins and the financial sector feels worried, it may also drive up the price of BTC. He predicts that after the election, BTC may fluctuate between $70,000 and $75,000, and there may be short-term fluctuations in the market during the adjustment process.

Andrew Lokenauth, founder of TheFinanceNewsletter.com, provided a detailed analysis. He believes that the momentum of "Uptober" may continue until early November, but the final selection of the US President will determine the subsequent trend of BTC. He estimates that Trump's victory will immediately have a positive impact on BTC, with a price target between $65,000 and $72,000; conversely, if Kamala Harris wins, it may trigger a BTC fall to between $58,000 and $63,000, as regulatory pressure from the Democratic Party on the industry may worry investors. He also reminded investors to pay attention to the potential latency of the election results, social unrest, the global financial market's response, and regulatory announcements that may occur during this period, all of which may significantly affect price trends.

Michael Schmied, a senior financial analyst at Kredite Schweiz, emphasized that market fluctuation will intensify on the eve of the election. BTC is expected to experience a 'cooling off' period followed by a rapid rebound during this time, as traders take the opportunity to test the waters. He further pointed out that regardless of who is elected president, BTC may maintain a similar price range. However, Schmied predicts that if Trump is re-elected, market fluctuation may intensify. On the other hand, if Harris is elected, the market may be more stable due to her position, which may provide more 'security' for many investors. Despite the overall optimistic outlook of the analysis, Schmied estimates that BTC may fall to a range of $36,500 to $44,000, with a maximum fall of 48%.

In summary, although the current performance of BTC is exciting, whether it can break through the historical high and even impact $100,000 still depends on whether the market can overcome technical resistance and the impact of the US election results on market sentiment. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and respond cautiously to potential fluctuation risks.

[Disclaimer] The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific situation. Investing based on this is at your own risk.