BTC may be entering a new era, characterized not by parabolic peaks but by more institutionally driven, gradual growth.

It’s been a year since Bitcoin’s most recent halving, and this cycle is showing a markedly different pattern. Unlike previous cycles that saw explosive rallies post-halving, BTC has only risen by 31% in this one, compared to a staggering 436% increase during the same period in the last cycle.

Meanwhile, long-term holder metrics—such as the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio—indicate a sharp drop in unrealized profits, suggesting that the market is maturing and that the room for upside is becoming more limited. Taken together, these shifts imply that BTC may be transitioning into a new phase marked by steady, institutionally influenced growth rather than parabolic price movements.

One Year After the Halving: A Distinct Cycle

This BTC cycle stands out significantly from previous ones, which may signal a shift in how the market responds to halving events.

In earlier cycles—particularly from 2012 to 2016 and from 2016 to 2020—BTC often experienced robust upward momentum during this stage. The post-halving period typically brought strong bullish trends and parabolic price action, largely driven by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

This time, however, the trajectory has diverged. Rather than accelerating after the halving, BTC prices began to surge ahead of time in October and December 2024, followed by a consolidation phase in January 2025 and a correction in late February.

This pattern of front-loaded gains diverges significantly from historical trends, where the halving often served as a catalyst for substantial upward movement.

Multiple factors have contributed to this shift. BTC is no longer merely a retail-driven speculative asset—it is increasingly regarded as a mature financial instrument. The growing involvement of institutional investors, combined with macroeconomic pressures and evolving market structures, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

BTC Cycle Comparison. Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison

Another clear sign of this evolution is the diminishing intensity of each cycle. As BTC’s market capitalization grows, the explosive gains seen in the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the 2020–2024 cycle, BTC rose by 436% one year after the halving.

In contrast, the current cycle has seen a much more subdued increase of just 31% over the same timeframe.

This shift could signify that BTC is entering a new chapter—characterized by lower volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halvings may no longer be the primary driving force; instead, factors like interest rates, liquidity, and institutional capital are playing a larger role.

The rules of the game are changing, and so is BTC’s trajectory.

That said, it’s worth noting that previous cycles also experienced phases of consolidation and pullbacks before resuming their upward trend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it could still represent a healthy correction before the next leg up.

In other words, this cycle might continue to diverge from historical patterns. Rather than ending with a dramatic bubble and crash, it could unfold into a more sustained and structurally sound uptrend—one driven more by fundamentals than by hype.

LTH MVRV Ratio Reveals a Maturing BTC Market

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Long-Term Holders (LTH) has long been a reliable indicator of unrealized profits. It shows how much profit long-term investors have accrued before they begin to sell. Over time, this figure has been steadily declining.

In the 2016–2020 cycle, the peak LTH MVRV ratio reached 35.8, signaling massive paper profits and the formation of a clear market top. In the 2020–2024 cycle, that peak sharply declined to 12.2, even though BTC hit new all-time highs during that period.

So far in the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV ratio has only reached 4.35—a dramatic drop. This suggests that the gains realized by long-term holders are significantly lower than in previous cycles, even in the face of substantial price increases. The trend is clear: the return multiples in each successive cycle are diminishing.

BTC’s potential for explosive upside is being compressed as the market matures.

With the LTH MVRV ratio peaking at just 4.35 this cycle, it’s evident that long-term holders are realizing far lower multiples compared to past cycles. Even with strong price action, the compression of upside potential signals a maturing market structure.

BTC Long-Term Holder MVRV. Source: Glassnode

This is no coincidence. As the market matures, explosive gains naturally become harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, giving way to more moderate or steady growth.

The ever-growing market size means that exponentially more capital is required to move prices significantly.

However, this does not necessarily indicate that the current cycle has peaked. Historically, cycles often include extended periods of consolidation or minor pullbacks before reaching new highs.

With institutional investors playing an increasingly prominent role, the accumulation phase may last longer. As a result, profit-taking at cycle peaks may not occur as abruptly as in earlier cycles.

Still, if the trend of declining peak MVRV ratios continues, it may reinforce the narrative that BTC is transitioning from wild, cyclical surges to a more measured and structurally grounded growth pattern.

The most explosive gains may already be behind us—especially for investors entering the market in the later stages of the cycle.

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