Whale signals reversal on the edge of liquidation: Who is betting on the bottom of BTC?

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The Crypto Assets market is never short of drama. Recently, this "Whale's bet on the edge of a cliff" has once again pushed market sentiment to a critical point.

James Wynn, the whale known for his aggressive style, recently placed a massive bet on a Bitcoin rebound with 40x leverage. His $147 million long position is currently less than $300 away from the liquidation price—meaning that even a slight push downward in the market could cause this position to explode. As of now, his unrealized loss has exceeded $1.13 million.

But what is most attractive about the market is - it did not collapse as expected. Near the liquidation line, Bitcoin not only did not plummet, but instead stabilized and rebounded. Is this a coincidence, or a sign of a reversal?

Who exactly is betting on the bottom of Bitcoin?

Market Background: BTC Pullback + Whale Liquidation's "Chain of Suspense"

In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin has retreated from the May high of $111,900 to the range of $105,300. The overall pullback is not considered exaggerated, but under the leverage system, this is enough to trigger a series of liquidations. Especially for huge positions with ultra-high leverage like Wynn, it means that even a 1% drop could cause that position to vanish.

More dramatically, this round of correction is not just a singular market behavior; there are also macro catalysts behind it:

Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on the EU, triggering global risk aversion and causing BTC to briefly drop below $105,000;

Market rumors suggest that some institutions or market makers are intentionally lowering prices to "hunt for liquidation positions," especially leveraged positions like Wynn, which are at "target level" and thus most likely to become targets.

This is also why we focus our attention on this range—here could be both the starting point of a panic and the pivot point for a shift in market sentiment.

The liquidation threshold is not the end, but possibly the starting point of a reversal?

On the surface, the liquidation price of the Wynn position is the "line of life and death" for Bitcoin's short-term trend. However, from multiple dimensions, it seems more like a node that is carefully "protected" by the market.

  1. Technical aspect: Settlement price = Multiple support resonance zone

The liquidation price is just near:

The daily trend support corresponds roughly to the upward trend line (pink line) from late March to mid-April;

The Fibonacci retracement 38.2% zone is usually regarded as a "healthy pullback" position in trending markets;

According to the chip distribution chart on AiCoin, it can also be seen that the liquidation price is approximately in the previous area of concentrated trading.

In other words, it is not only Wynn betting on the support of this position, but many technical traders are also using real money to verify whether it can hold up.

  1. On-chain trends: Large buy orders and capital "bottom protection" behaviors are emerging.

According to on-chain data and some exchange order book information, there are multiple large BTC buy orders hanging in the range of $104,100 to $105,200, suspected to be placed by whales or institutions to defend critical market levels.

In addition, Wynn has not taken any actions to transfer assets or replenish positions, which may also indicate that he still has confidence in that position.

  1. Bearish momentum weakens: A liquidation cascade did not occur, but the rebound strength has begun to accumulate.

If the liquidation level is truly breached, we should see a sharp decline and a liquidation explosion.

However, the current trend shows: a failure to break down, decreasing trading volume, and a rebound at low levels. This indicates that the bears have not been able to "break through the bottom line" and are instead depleting their ammunition, which may very well be brewing a short covering rally.

Who is quietly bottom-fishing? The invisible "opponent's position"

This raises a key question: Who is betting on the bottom of BTC?

· Are other Whales accumulating?

According to NFTEvening and some on-chain analysis platforms, there have indeed been new institutions increasing their holdings of BTC around $105,000 recently. This indicates that, despite Wynn being on the verge of liquidation, not all Whales are retreating; some are choosing to go against the trend.

· The market structure hasn't broken yet?

BTC is still holding its 50-day moving average, the middle of the trend channel, and has not even touched the sentimental threshold of $100,000. The logic of the structural bull market has not been broken, and the market is only a "de-bubble" process, not a real trend reversal.

· Is it a hedge against positive factors from mining companies like Cango?

It is worth mentioning that the foundation of bullish sentiment in the market is also constantly accumulating. For example:

Cango mined a total of 954.5 BTC worth more than $100 million in April and May, indicating a rebound in Bitcoin mining profitability. The company also announced a full transformation to Bitcoin mining and the sale of traditional businesses, indicating that traditional capital is accelerating All in BTC. This good news, although not related to Wynn's high leverage, is the force behind the support of market confidence.

When a Whale is on the verge of liquidation, another traditional giant is betting on the future of Bitcoin; this "long-short collision" is often an important signal of the bottom.

Bull-Bear Watershed: A breakdown means a sell-off, while holding means a counterattack.

We can understand the current structure like this:

Situation Market Results Interpretation If it falls below the liquidation price of $104,976, the Wynn position will be liquidated, triggering a chain liquidation, with the market testing the psychological barrier of $100,000. Bears win, bulls retreat, and emotions collapse. If it holds the range of $104,000-$105,000, bears lose momentum, a short-term rebound triggers short covering, forming a V-shaped structure. Bulls win, price reverses, and retests $110,000.

From a short-term speculative perspective, this liquidation price is no longer simply a "stop-loss line," but rather a true "watershed" in the market.

Whether Wynn's position is liquidated actually brings about a more critical thought. Surrounding this position, the market is revealing two completely different forces:

A attempt to create a downturn through panic;

One quietly accumulates bullish momentum at a low position.

Who can laugh last does not depend on which step the price takes first, but on whose hands the chips ultimately stand.

When considering your next move, you might also ask yourself:

"This time, is the person standing on the edge of liquidation being forced back, or are they luring the enemy deeper?"

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The content is for reference only, not a solicitation or offer. No investment, tax, or legal advice provided. See Disclaimer for more risks disclosure.
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· 06-04 04:46
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